Continuing our brand new series that will be taking a brief snapshot of our five top tips based on these four FPL fundamentals:
Often the common denominator and what everyone seems to go on. Its important, but not the whole story.
Lets face it, FPL picks aren’t for the 1 week. If you’re bringing someone in, you should be looking toward at least the next 4 gameweeks. Often the precursor to form, frisking the fixtures allows you to get the jump on the top picks in before your rivals.
The most important concept to get your head around for FPL. We have a budget and every million counts.
4. Underlying stats
What people often forget is that last weeks points are gone. Its a players future points potential that matters most and underlying stats are a crucial component to gauging this.
Tip no.1 – The must have – Sane
Last time out our must have tip, Salah, grabbed a brace. Simply put, if you don’t have the Egyptian already, you had better find a way to bring him in. Salah is still the top must have tip in all honesty, but we like to mix up our tips from week to week. This time around, we’ve opted for City’s man, Sane. Maybe he doesn’t quite fit the ‘must have catergory’ but he’s certainly becoming hard to ignore. Pep’s also come out and said that he’s pretty much nailed on in order to provide width for city whilst Mendy is out. That’s music to the ears of his growing band of followers.
Form – Only Salah has bettered Sane’s total points to date. Over the last 7 weeks, the German has averaged a stunning 8.9 points per game.
Fixtures – Not that these really matter for City, but they still looks very strong with Huddersfield, Stoke and West Ham up nest to face the City jugganaught.
Value – Coming in at 9.0, Sane is delivering heavy hitter returns for a decent price.
Underlying stats – Not brilliant underlying stats, but he does seem to be one of those players that takes his opportunities.
- Form 90% 90%
- Fixtures 75% 75%
- Value 70% 70%
- Underlying stats 65% 65%
Tip no.2 – Top Defender – Dann
Last weeks top defender tip, Daniels, got off to a good start by racking up a clean sheets and two bonus points – a tidy sum of 8 points for those who brought him in. This week might surprise some, as we look to Dann, who has not mustered a clean sheet to date.
Form – Put simply, awful. But then, we are concerned by future points potential in FPL and Dann certainly has some of that.
Fixtures – Couldn’t be much better. Dann squares up to none of the top 8 teams in the next 7 matches.
Value – Dropped to a very kind 4.7 and offering potential returns at both ends of the pitch.
Underlying stats – This is where Dann and screams “due”. He is top for shots inside the box amongst defenders over the last 4 weeks. The Englishman’s 7 shots in the box is the same as Hazard and more than City duo De Buyne (3) and Sane (5). Not bad for a 4.7 defender!
Somewhat surprisingly, despite no clean sheets to date, Palace are also doing well for defensive stats with only City having conceded fewer shots inside the box over the last 4 gameweeks. This suggests they have been a tad unfortunate not to have had more shutouts under Roy’s guidance.
- Form 5% 5%
- Fixtures 95% 95%
- Value 90% 90%
- Underlying stats 95% 95%
Tip no.3 – Top Midfielder – Hazard
Last time out our top midfielder pick Richarlison continued to deliver outstanding value. This time we’ve gone for a certain Belgian maestro. He may be on the pricier side, but we believe he’s worth every penny.
Form – Scintillating. He’s dismantled West Brom last time out and may have even got Pulis fired.
Fixtures – A tough away match to Liverpool, is followed by a brilliant run that stretches through Christmas and into the new year.
Value – At 10.6, he’s not cheap.
Underlying stats – Operating in the hole behind Morata, Hazard seems to have been given a new lease of life. He has the numbers to back it up, with only Salah having more shots on target over the last four gameweeks for amongst midfielders.
- Form 95% 95%
- Fixtures 90% 90%
- Value 30% 30%
- Underlying stats 80% 80%
Tip no.4 – Top Forward – Kane
Having blanked the last two premier league matches, Kane might not be everyones favourite fantasy player right now. But, we are backing him to repay those that keep the faith this weekend. Morata did make a strong case for inclusion here, but its mainly this weeks fixture and Kane’s underlying stats that made us give the Spurs man the nod.
Form – Runs hot and cold. He did however bag another goal midweek.
Fixtures – The next five games look primed for Kane hauls, not least with a manager less West Brom up next.
Value – We’ll skip past this one ;)
Underlying stats – Amongst strikers, he’s pretty much top of all the numbers that count – most for total shots (14) and shots in the box (10) over the last four gameweeks.
- Form 65% 65%
- Fixtures 85% 85%
- Value 10% 10%
- Underlying stats 85% 85%
Tip no.5 – The Punt – Mahrez
The Algerian winger has been edging back to the type of form that propelled Leicester to the title two seasons ago. With a poor looking Hammers side up next, he could well be worth a role of the dice.
Form – Last time out against City was his only blank in the last five gameweeks.
Fixtures – Bar a home visit of Spurs next Tuesday, the next five games are all against teams that Leicester will fancy their chances against.
Value – There’s no doubting that the flying winger does have some competition for our attention in midfield. But, at 8.4, we all know he has potential to make a mockery of his price tag.
Underlying stats – Sitting 5th for shots inside the box amongst midfielders over the last two gameweeks, Mahrez has decent underlying statistics to back up the recent upturn in form.
Many may wonder why Pogba hasn’t made the cut. We do rate him as a pick, but he outperformed his underlying statistics last time out and United face both Arsneal and City in the next four.
- Form 75% 75%
- Fixtures 75% 75%
- Value 70% 70%
- Underlying stats 70% 70%
Like the new series?
If you like this piece, let us know in the comments. We’re hopefully going to be making it a regular.
Join our FPL Facebook group
We have recently launched a new Facebook group for FPL that can be found here. Lots of good discussion, so be sure to check it out.
How to win at FPL Guide
Here’s a members guide on how to win at FPL. It gives all my top tips to on how to… well.. win at FPL