Welcome back to the Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will review last week’s choices and pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
Gameweek 2 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Luke Shaw – £5.0m, 1.5% owned
Manchester United had a blank in Gameweek 1 which saw their players ownership be much lower than it potentially would have been at the start of the season given the good form seen at the end of the 2019/20 season. This means there is an opportunity for their defenders to offer good differentials for the managers who can access these Manchester United players before others. A key metric Manchester United improved on in the second half of last season was clean sheets. The two most popular assets in Maguire and Wan Bissaka were priced at £5.5m, however, Luke Shaw at £5.0m could offer a strong differential option. Over the second half of the season, Shaw had the highest expected points per start out of all of the Manchester United defenders and ranked second behind Wan Bissaka for actual points scored per appearance.
In addition, Manchester United have strong opening fixtures now they have navigated their blank Gameweek 1. Using the Hub’s fixture ticker, Manchester United have the second easiest fixtures from a defensive point of view over the next five Gameweeks. They do face Tottenham and Chelsea, although both of these fixtures are at home and are surrounded by Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Brighton who average less than one goal scored per game on average. This nice run of fixtures for Manchester United which could allow Luke Shaw both attacking and defensive returns.
The Midfielder Differential – Podence – £5.5m, 0.4% owned
Podence was not one of the regular starters within the Wolves attack during the 2019/20 season, however, the winger showed good glimpses when he had opportunities in the team. As a result, Podence started Gameweek 1 for Wolves in the left-wing position and picked up six points due to an assist for the Jimenez goal. With this in mind as well as players rivalling him for minutes, such as Jota, not playing as well it seems that Podence will be the first choice for Wolves in that position. Wolves on average scored 1.34 goals per game which ranks eighth in the league behind the other teams who finished in the top eight of the Premier League last season. This being said, if Podence can maintain his starting place, he will be playing in a team that is likely to score more goals than the other £5.5m midfielders such as Saint-Maximin (Newcastle average 1.0) giving Podence the potential for more returns. During the 2019/20 season, although he only started 3 matches, the winger had the highest points per start out of any Wolves player with 6.33. Jimenez’ for comparison was 5.22 and is priced at £8.5m.
As well as offering strong attacking numbers in a team that can score goals, Podence has excellent fixtures over the next six Gameweeks. Even if Wolves do host Manchester City in Gameweek 2, Wolves rank first for the best fixtures from an attacking perspective. This run of fixtures includes West Ham, Fulham, Leeds, Newcastle and Crystal Palace. Combining the strong attacking statistics for Podence with the lack of European football for Wolves which could minimise rotation and the strong fixtures means that Podence could prove to be a nice differential at a very favourable and accessible price point.
The Forward Differential – Calvert Lewin – £7.0m – 9.4% owned
Calvert Lewin saw his ownership remain under 10% in Gameweek 1 despite getting 14 attacking returns in 36 appearances last season. Part of this was down to an away fixture to Tottenham in Gameweek 1, however, Calvert Lewin returned with eight points and could have had a second goal as well. Everton have made some substantial signings as well this season including James Rodriguez, Allan and Doucoure. This means there should be more and better quality service for Calvert Lewin who now seems to be operating as a sole striker whilst Richarlison is deployed on the left-wing. In the second half of the season when Calvert Lewin really got going, the English striker ranked first for expected goals out of all the forwards priced under £9.5m. This ranks higher than both Ings and Jimenez despite being only £7.0m.
As well as these impressive numbers at a very reasonable price, Everton have strong fixtures over the next five Gameweeks which make Calvert Lewin an even more enticing differential. In the next five games, they have the fourth-best fixtures from an attacking perspective according to the Hub’s fixture ticker. They do play Liverpool at home in the Merseyside Derby in Gameweek 5, however, this is surrounded by fixtures against West Brom, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Southampton and Newcastle. If Calvert Lewin can continue his new form whilst his new teammates such as Rodriguez and Doucoure boost the English forward’s chances further, Calvert Lewin could offer a nice differential in the forward position over the next five fixtures.
Thank you for reading.
I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you over the next five Gameweeks and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider and hopefully help boost your ranks.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ