Welcome back to the brand new Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will pick out five players who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
Gameweek 32+ Differentials
Patrick Van Aanholt, £5.6m, 5.5% owned
Patrick Van Aanholt is not only part of a defence that had kept four consecutive clean sheets before playing Liverpool but is one of their most attacking assets as well. Since the Premier League restart, the 5.6 defender is the highest-scoring player at Crystal Palace with 12 points due to a clean sheet, a goal and three bonus points in their opening game against Bournemouth. Van Aanholt is also on set pieces for Crystal Palace and has taken both corners and free-kicks in recent weeks adding to his value going forward. In Gameweek 32+ the 5.6m defender comes up against a Burnley side who have looked mixed since the restart. They have scored just one goal in the two games played and created just two big chances one of which was scored. This is also added two by Burnley’s two top scores both being expected to remain sidelined in the upcoming fixture. The low scoring ability of Burnley and the defensive nature of Crystal Palace offer a strong opportunity for Van Aanholt.
One of the most popular defenders at the moment is Doherty of Wolves who now has ownership of 11.3% and for good reason. However, Van Aanholt could offer a nice differential for a lower price and half of the ownership. Since Gameweek 20, Van Aanholt has returned more points per game started than Doherty. This is due to both his attacking capabilities picking up a goal and assist in seven starts as well as four clean sheets. This equals an attacking return or clean sheet in six of his seven starts. He has also underperformed his expected assists by 0.6 so there is potential for ongoing attacking returns from Van Aanholt especially now he is on set pieces.
Player comparison: Gameweek 20 onwards – Van Aanholt v Doherty
Sarr, £6.3m, 2.2% owned
Sarr has the highest goals per game and expected goals per game out of any midfielder under 6.5m this season. This has gone unnoticed as he has remained at just 2.2% ownership, whilst similar players, such as Mason Mount at 15.2%, have risen too much higher ownership. Sarr has the most points from attacking returns in the Watford team this season with five goals and four assists. He is a fast player who causes defences problems down either the left or right-wing and even the best defence in the league in Liverpool could not stop him. Watford is also just one point above the relegation zone and so will be fighting in every game to try and earn some points to push them further towards safety. With Sarr’s attacking threat, he is one of the players Watford will likely turn to aid their cause.
In Gameweek 32+ Watford host a Southampton side who have been far from assured defensively this season. They fall fourth for goals conceded per game with 1.75 and fourth for big chances conceded with 2.42. Watford lost in Gameweek 31+ to a Burnley side and will likely want to get back to winning ways in this fixture to make sure they do not get drawn into a relegation battle. Over the next five fixtures, Watford also plays Norwich and West Ham two of the teams worse than Southampton for goals conceded per game. This offers Sarr as a potential differential over the next few Gameweeks rather than just 32+ alone. He also seems a firm choice on the teamsheet having started and played over 80 minutes in all of Watford’s last four matches.
Midfielders under 6.5m – Points per Start
Saint-Maximin, £5.4m, 1.5% owned
Saint-Maximin has the fourth-highest average points per appearance since Gameweek 20 out of any Midfielder under 6 million with 4.5 points per game. However, his form has been more impressive recently with two goals in the last three matches which have returned him 22 points. He is also one of the more assured starters within the Newcastle team with their front three starting to play more together it is expected that this will continue. Saint-Maximin has caused many defenses problems this season from the right-wing due to his pace and dribbling ability. This has meant he has the joint highest number of attacking returns out of any Newcastle player. It is also important during this time of the season with both the temperature as well as increased rotation, to pick players you can be more sure of to start most matches.
The next fixture for Newcastle and the 5.4 midfielder n Gameweek 32+ is against Bournemouth who has picked up just one point in their last six matches and conceded 12 goals in this period averaging two per game. This is the joint-most that any team in the league has conceded during the last six games. In Gameweek 33+ Newcastle then face West Ham, the team who have conceded the most big-chances with 95 this season and so averaging over 3 per game. This shows that there should be chances for Newcastle and Saint-Maximin against both Bournemouth and West Ham in their next two fixtures.
Gameweek 20-31 – Midfielders under 6.0m – Per Appearance
Azpilicueta, £5.9m, 6.2% owned
Azpilicueta is an ever-present in the Chelsea side and has had several attacking returns this season as well as clean sheets, however, he has remained with fairly low ownership with 6.2%. Azpilicueta has the fourth-highest expected assists so far this season with 4.58 only behind both Liverpool fullbacks in Alexander-Arnold and Robertson as well as Digne. However, he has also returned two goals this season as well to increase his attacking returns to one every four matches. Azpilicueta is Chelsea’s captain and is likely to start the majority of matches for them this season as he can be used both as a left-back and a right-back by Lampard. Chelsea however, has only kept 6 clean sheets so far this season, although have conceded the second-fewest shots on target this season only behind Liverpool. They also have an expected clean sheet of 10.49 which is significantly higher than 6 they have kept so there is a possibility they can improve on this form.
In Gameweek 32+ Chelsea plays West Ham in a London derby. West Ham has scored 35 goals this season averaging 1 per game, however, they have failed to score in either game since the league restarted and have created just one big chance in the two matches. In their next five matches, Chelsea also plays Watford, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United, and Norwich who all six amongst the six teams with the fewest number of goals scored this season and all average just under one per game. These teams also sit amongst some of the worst for headers conceded this season and with Azpilicueta playing at right-back or left-back he will look to continue on his average of 3.31 crosses per game. This shows there is potential for clean sheets as well as attacking returns over the next few Gameweeks for Azpilicueta to be a strong differential in our Fantasy Premier League Teams.
Defenders – Total expected assists
Nketiah, £4.4m, 1.9% owned
Nketiah is one of the cheapest forwards within the Fantasy Premier League at the moment and seems to be favoured by the Arsenal manager Arteta. Since the restart of the season, Arsenal has played an extra match to most other teams and Nketiah has started two out of these three matches including being given the opportunity against Manchester City ahead of a teammate Lacazette. After this match, Nketiah’s manager gave him strong praise about his performance even in a 3-0 defeat. In the most recent match in Gameweek 31+ against Southampton, Nketiah got his second goal of the season after he showed good pressure to close down the Southampton goalkeeper. There are limited stats on Nketiah due to the number of minutes he has played this season, however, he could offer good value for many and a strong rotating differential in the final games of the season.
In Gameweek 32+ Arsenal host a Norwich side who have been one of the worse defensive teams so far this season, conceding 56 goals this season the second most in the league behind Aston Villa. Norwich falls bottom for shots on target and so there is likely to be chances for Arsenal in this fixture. Norwich has been without two of their centre backs since the Premier League restart which has meant in the two games played they are bottom for shots, shots in the box and shots on target conceded in these two Gameweeks. Arsenal also plays Aston Villa and Watford before the end of the season offering other potentially strong opportunities for Fantasy Premier League managers to rotate Nketiah into their teams.
Defending comparison – Shots on target and goals conceded per match
Thank you for reading.
I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you in Gameweek 32+ and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider to help boost your rank as much as possible in the final Gameweeks of the season.
Thanks for reading – @FPLTIPZ
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