Welcome back to the brand new Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will pick out five players who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.

Gameweek 34+ Differentials

Dawson, £4.8m, 0.2% owned

There had to be a differential from Watford ahead of Gameweek 34+ as they host a Norwich side who have lost all four games since the resumption of the Premier League. They have conceded nine goals and scored zero in these matches so there should be potential for Watford players all over the pitch. Norwich has conceded the most shots on target since the restart averaging six per match as well as having created just one big chance in all of the four matches combined. Watford also play Newcastle and West Ham in their next two matches so there is potential to hold their assets longer as they fight to remain in the league.

The differential I have chosen is Dawson, a 4.8 defender owned by just 0.2% of managers. Since the restart, Dawson has scored and conceded just once in two of the four games since Gameweek 30+. Dawson has the highest expected points per game within the whole of the Watford team with 5.1, however, has returned just 3 points per start. This is one of the reasons Dawson has remained with low ownership as Dawson has not performed as expected. A home fixture against Norwich who receives 2.3 shots from headers per game, could be an ideal time for Dawson to return on his expected statistics and return points for Fantasy Premier League Managers.

FPL differentials

Watford Players expected points per start since Gameweek 30+

 

Foden, £5.3m, 4.4% owned

Foden has been one of the standout players since the return of the Premier League as he has found himself starting in the Manchester City lineup. Foden is the fourth-highest scoring player since Gameweek 30+ and has the highest average points per start with 14 which is higher than his highly owned teammate Kevin De Bruyne. This shows that if Foden is going to start the next Manchester City game, Foden is a good option that still has low ownership at 4.4%. In Gameweek 33+ against Southampton, when Manchester City were losing 1-0, Foden and De Bruyne were both brought on in the 59th minute to try and change the game, indicating that Pep Guardiola trusts him. This could also imply that the 5.3m midfielder will start in Gameweek 34+ due to the lack of minutes at the weekend.

In Gameweek 34+ Manchester City play against Newcastle who have the fourth-lowest expected clean sheets out of any team this season with just a 0.2 per match. This indicates there could be opportunities for Foden and the Manchester City attack in Gameweek 34+. On top of this, Newcastle Manager Steve Bruce has noted that some of his players, such as Saint-Maximin, are tired and may need a rest during their match against Manchester City. Manchester City then go on to play Brighton, Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich so there is a good argument to keep Foden until the end of the season.

 

FPL differentials

Player Comparison – Foden v De Bruyne – Since Gameweek 30+

 

Mendy, £5.5m, 1.4% owned

Mendy was one of the most popular assets within the Fantasy Premier League when he first joined Manchester City due to both his attacking and clean sheet potential. However, having spent the best part of the last two seasons out injured, Mendy’s ownership has not risen back up to what it was before. Mendy seems to have got back into the Manchester City lineup and having been rotated with Zinchenko, who gave the ball away for the Southampton goal at the weekend, Mendy should return to the starting lineup in Gameweek 34+. Since the return of the Premier League, Mendy has put in more crosses than all of the other Manchester City defenders combined with nine in the three games Mendy has played. This shows the 5.5m defender has the potential for attacking returns as well as potential clean sheets.

In Gameweek 34+ Manchester City and Mendy play against a Newcastle side who are third-bottom this season for Big Chances created this season with 51 or 1.55 per game. Manchester City also has the third-best goals conceded per game since the resumption of the Premier League with 0.6. Finally, Newcastle ranks first for shots conceded from headers since the resumption of the Premier League which could suit Mendy well with his number of crosses. This indicates that there is potential for returns from Mendy both attacking and defensive. Manchester City also still have to play Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich before the end of the season.

Manchester City Defenders Crosses since Gameweek 30+

 

Shaw, £5.4m, 0.9% owned

Since the restart of the Premier League in Gameweek 30+, Luke Shaw has started every game for Manchester United and even been brought off late into the game to try and rest him ahead of upcoming fixtures. There is a lot of talk about Manchester United assets due to their strong performances, however, this mostly falls on the likes of Martial, Fernandes, Rashford and Greenwood. However, Luke Shaw has the third-highest expected points per game out of anyone within the Manchester United team with 5.9 This is due to the strong defensive ability of Manchester United, as well as Shaw getting forward high up the pitch and joining the attacks.

In Gameweek 34+, Shaw plays a Brighton side who have created 0.75 big chances per game since the Premier League restarted. This has meant they have scored less than a goal per game, indicating there is potential for Shaw to pick up a clean sheet. Manchester United also still have to play Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham before the end of the season so there is potential to hold Shaw as a longer time differential.

FPL differentials

Manchester United – Expected points per start since Gameweek 30+

 

Rodriguez, £5.7m, 0.3% owned

Since the return to the Premier League, Rodriguez has been involved in every goal that Burnley has scored whilst the 5.7m forward has been on the pitch with a goal and an assist in his last two matches. This has given him 4 points per start due to his opening match being in a 5-0 loss to Manchester City. Since then Rodriguez has returned 5.5 points per game and has the highest expected points per appearance out of any forward under 9m and so ranking higher than the likes of Jimenez, Ings and Calvert Lewin who are much more highly owned.

In Gameweek 34+ Burnley face a West Ham side who have been far from solid defensively conceding 2 goals in each of their four matches since the return of the Premier League. This means there is potential for Rodriguez to continue his strong run of form in front of goal. In Gameweek 37+ and 38+, Burnley face Norwich and Brighton who will likely have nothing to play for by this stage and so as Burnley potentially fights for European places in the table, managers could Rodriguez for the remainder of the season.

FPL differentials

Forwards under 9m – Points per Appearance – Since Gameweek 30+

 

Thank you for reading.

I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you in Gameweek 34+ and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider to help boost your rank as much as possible in the final Gameweeks of the season.

Thanks for reading – @FPLTIPZ

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