Welcome back to the Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will review last week’s choices and pick out five players for the coming Gameweek who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.

Thank you all for reading this series since the resumption of the Premier League. It will be back for the 2020/21 season and I look forward to continuing it for you all.

Gameweek 37+ FPL Differentials Review

Tarkowski, £5.4m, 6.2% owned – 6 points – Tarkowski kept a clean sheet as expected against Norwich in Gameweek 37+. However, there were no attacking returns or bonus points for the defender.

Wood, £6.1m, 1.2% owned – 7 points – Wood picked up the first goal as Burnley beat Norwich 2-0. Wood also earnt

Josh King, £6.1m, 3.3% owned – 2 points – King was taken off at 70 minutes as Bournemouth tried to find an equaliser. King was involved for Bournemouth but did not get any chances.

Jota, £6.0m, 5.1% owned – 1 point – Jota was on the bench for Wolves in Gameweek 37+ and came on for 18 minutes as Wolvers were already 2-0 up against Crystal Palace.

Trossard, £5.8m, 0.5% owned – 3 points – Trossard had expected points of 5.6 in Gameweek 37+ but Brighton were held to a 0-0 draw with Newcastle which secured their place in the Premier League next season.

Overall – The average points returned by the differentials this week was 3.8 with two returns and three blanks. Both of the Burnley players returned for us this week.

Gameweek 38+ FPL Differentials

David Silva, £7.5m 8.6% owned

Kevin de Bruyne has been one of the most talked-about Fantasy Premier League players this season and as a result is the most owned player in the game with 48.7%. However, his teammate David Silva has gone under the radar due to him not being as certain to start in the Manchester City team as De Bruyne. Gameweek 38+ will be David Silva’s final Premier League match for Manchester City and his final match at their stadium. This being the case and having been rested in Gameweek 37+ against Norwich, Silva looks set to start this game, although nothing is certain under Guardiola. As well as this, there is the possibility Silva is put on more set pieces as his teammates look to get him a goal as a good send off as a Manchester City legend.

In Gameweek 38+ Manchester City play against a relegated Norwich side who have struggled for most of the season. However, one of their biggest achievements was beating Manchester City earlier in the season, a result that Guardiola and his players will look to counter in Gameweek 38+. Norwich have conceded the most goals since the return of the Premier League with 18 from 8 games, an average of over two per match. As well as this, Manchester City need three goals to reach the 100 goal tally again this season which Guardiola has said he is keen to do. Overall, it seems as though this has the potential to be a strong match for Manchester City attackers and David Silva as the 7.5m midfielder look to finish his time in Manchester in style.

FPL differentials

Player Comparison – David Silva vs De Bruyne – Points per Start Gameweek 19 onwards

Mendy, £5.5m, 1.6% owned

It has been difficult to predict the Manchester City defence this season, however, with a fixture against Norwich it is difficult not to include one here. Norwich have scored just one goal in their last eight games which came against 18th placed Watford. This is down to them having just 12 shots on target in these eight matches and creating just four big chances, both of which are the worst in the league. In addition, Manchester City have the best goals conceded to games played ratio since Gameweek 30+ with just 0.44 goals per game and have six clean sheets in nine matches. Ederson is joint with Pope for the most clean sheets in the Premier League this season and so there is extra incentive there to stop Norwich from scoring.

The defender chosen is Mendy, who has the highest points per start out of any of the Manchester City fullbacks this season with 4.06. Mendy only ranks behind Garcia and Laporte for all Manchester City defenders, however, both of these started in Gameweek 37+, so it is unclear if they will be chosen for Gameweek 38+ or whether the likes of Otamendi, Stones or Fernandinho will be given the nod. Mendy has the second most crosses per start this season for Manchester City only behind De Bruyne and so there is potential for him to get forward and offering attacking threat against this leaky Norwich team.

FPL differentials

Manchester City Defenders – Points per Start

Deeney, £6.2m, 1.7% owned

Watford will likely need three points against Arsenal in Gameweek 38+ if they want a chance of remaining in the Premier League and overtaking Aston Villa in the table. It is unlikely they will play it safe and look for a draw which would not be enough if Aston Villa were to either win or draw against West Ham in Gameweek 38+. Arsenal had looked better defensively since the return of the league in Gameweek 30+, keeping three clean sheets in their first five matches. However, have since conceded in all of their last three matches. As well as this, Arsenal have little to play for in terms of league position as their only way into Europe is by winning the FA Cup.

Since the restart of the Premier League, Deeney has been Watford’s highest scoring players with 33 points and so averaging over 4 points per start. However, in the last four Gameweeks, his average points per game has risen to 6.25 and has been involved in 60% of all of Watford’s goals in the last four weeks. The points per start for Deeney ranks first forwards under 9.5m behind Jesus of Manchester City and third amongst all forwards. With Deeney being involved in 600% of the goals Watford score and Watford needing a goal to try and stay in the Premier League, Deeney could offer a strong differential for managers in Gameweek 38+ and is priced at just 6.2m.

Forwards Under 10 million – Points per Start since Gameweek 34+

Grealish, £5.9m, 14.4% owned

Grealish does have ownership in the game of over 10% with 14.4%. However Grealish is 1.15% owned in top 10k and so indicating that Grealish is owned by a lot of inactive and low ranked teams, making him a differential for active managers. This differential is based more on a hunch than on the statistics for Grealish. He is the highest scoring player this season for Aston Villa with seven goals and seven assists and is 40 points ahead of second highest scorer Trezeguet. Grealish also has the highest goal involvement out of any Aston Villa player this season with 37%.

In Gameweek 38+ Aston Villa’s chances of staying in the Premier League rest in their own hands. There are several different scenarios that could see them finish 17th and be safe, however, if they lose to West Ham in Gameweek 38+ they have to hope Watford lose convincingly at Arsenal so they won’t want to leave it to chance. West Ham picked up a point against Manchester United in Gameweek 37+ meaning they are now mathematically safe and cannot be relegated. Therefore, Aston Villa will need to provide some threat in order to better the result that Watford gets and Grealish seems the best choice to do this. Grealish is also on some set pieces and corners so there is potential for attacking returns here as well.

Aston Villa players Total Points

 

Son, £9.7m, 8.5% owned

Son was one of the most picked players when the Premier League returned in Gameweek 30+, however, with 18 points from the first five matches, there was a large number of managers selling the 9.7m forward. However, since then Son has returned 27 points from three matches and has equalled Harry Kane across these three games but Kane has seen his ownership rise to 13.4% due to 25 points in his last two matches. In these recent matches, Tottenham have seen a slight change in formation which has put Son more central allowing him to be more influential in their attacks. Dele Alli is back fit for Gameweek 38+ and it is unclear if Alli will come back into the side and if this will impact Son’s positioning in the final match of the season.

In Gameweek 38+, Tottenham come up against a Crystal Palace side who have looked poor recently having lost their last seven matches and have scored just twice in these seven games. Since the restart of the Premier League, Crystal Palace has received the most big chances with 22 and conceded the second most goals only behind Norwich. This should give Son and Tottenham opportunities to get goals in Gameweek 38+ as they look to secure a Europa League position.

FPL differentials

Player Comparison – Son vs Kane – Points per Start since Gamewek 32+.

 

Thank you for reading.

I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you in Gameweek 38+ and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider to help boost your rank as much as possible in the final Gameweeks of the season.

Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ

 

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