This article takes a deep dive look at the all important Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 25 captain decision. It's written by our resident FPL captaincy expert Chris Tan who takes a close look at the fixtures, poll and stats breakdown before concluding on his best pick for the armband.
FPL Gameweek 24 Captain Recap
Before we delve into the FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Decision, although it feels like forever since the earlier fixtures were played, it’s important to cast our eye back to last week to get a feel for team and player form.
Tuesday – 21 January 2020
Villa ended Watford’s run although Mings was fortunate to stay on the pitch; it’s clear how much the win meant to him. Both Deeney and Deulofeu looked lively for Watford and despite blanking, Grealish was instrumental for Villa. Bournemouth shocked everyone by returning to winning ways and Wilson was back on the score sheet. For Brighton, Mooy looks to be a great fifth midfield enabler. Even without Ings, Southampton absolutely dominated Palace and it was Redmond that really impressed here. Everton were comfortably on top of Newcastle for almost the entire game with another goal from DCL, however Newcastle did another absolute smash and grab (partly due to some flapping about by Pickford) to clinch a last minute equaliser. Sheffield Utd held City for quite a while with Henderson saving a poor Jesus penalty before they brought on Aguero who added another to his tally from a KDB assist. Mahrez owners were unlucky, as his assist led to the penalty and Sterling missed an absolute sitter from another. Finally, Chelsea put up a dominant display against Arsenal, but a failure to convert chances resulted in them sharing the honours with Martinelli really emerging as an excellent cheap striker option.
Wednesday – 22 January 2020
Leicester lost Vardy to injury but they appear to have found their mojo in a swashbuckling display that saw them destroy West Ham. Perez took the plaudits, but it was Barnes that caught the eye. Spurs, on the other hand, made hard work of beating Norwich but the return of Lloris may help their defence. Alli got the bulk of the points, but Son and Aurier also returned and they’re clearly the top three assets for Spurs. Lastly, United were a shadow of the team that last played Burnley and their poor defending opened the door for Wood to continue his scoring run. Nothing could be done about the second screamer, but I would be wary about investing in United assets in the absence of Rashford.
Thursday - 23 January 2020
This was the big one we’d all been waiting for and as per most Double Gameweeks, it was the unlikely hero that won the day, as Henderson picked up his goal and assist. Firmino picked up the other goal, with Alexander-Arnold getting his mandatory assist but the game was marred by an early injury to Mane. Jimenez and Traore demonstrated again how potent a combination they are and if you own one, it’s worth doubling up given the frequency they link up.
Wednesday – 29 January 2020
With Mane out this one played out as most expected with a comfortable win and a CS for Liverpool. Salah won the day with a goal, assist and max bonus points but Alexander-Arnold wasn’t too far behind thanks to a clean sheet.
Who did I tip?
Salah (16) / Mane (1) – it was too close to call and Mane owners were desperately unlucky with his injury here. As expected the Wolves game was tight and it was the West Ham game that provided the returns.
Alexander-Arnold (12) – this worked out fairly well thanks to an assist and clean sheet and if they would have shut Wolves out in the first game then he would have been pushing 20 points.
How have we done to date?
I did an analysis of my picks over the season to date to compare with the top poll choice:
The second pick extended the lead over the top pick, which indicates that this might be a good route to take for those that are chasing, as it will be more of a differential choice without being an absolute punt. It looks like I should start following my own advice, as that extra 84 points from captaincy would be enough to put me in the top 10k…
What did we learn?
Who’s fighting for something? – some of the teams are chasing top four and others are fighting relegation; those are the teams that I would try to target as the players are fighting for something. For the teams that are safe from relegation but too far from top four, although still fairly early in the season, they don’t quite have the same drive as the others.
Form Shifts Quickly – previously we were targeting Villa and Newcastle, which is still true to a certain extent, but we appear to be in a state of flux at the moment with Bournemouth returning to winning ways and Brighton being dragged into the relegation battle.
FPL Gameweek 25 Captain - The Fixtures
Gameweek 25 fixtures are the reverse of Gameweek 2 (which was a long time ago), here’s what happened last time:
There were only two clean sheets (CS) in this Gameweek and it’s not unlikely that it will be similar again with a lot of potentially close games. Items of note are that Aubameyang scored in the reverse fixture, Pukki (remember him) got a hat trick, Aguero scored and KDB picked up two assists and this was the emergence of the Lord Lundstram (is his time over?) with a goal and CS.
Twitter FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Poll
Who do our Twitter followers think is the best FPL Gameweek 25 captain? (a quick one this week with c. 500 votes)
Old Hunting Ground – do any of the likely lads have a good history vs their opposition?
Aubameyang – has a seriously impressive record against Burnley and with his enforced rest from suspension he will be raring to go. Can he handle a cold, wet away game at Turf moor? He’s only played there once and he came away with a brace…
Mahrez – it’s a tiny sample size, so I wouldn’t read much into this.
KDB – has a better sample, but has only returned a single goal away from home.
Aguero – has an even bigger sample size and a very impressive record with three away goals, however none of his league returns have come in the last few years (although he did score against them in the Champions League last season).
Salah – all of his goals have come at home and he looks a great option for this week.
Jimenez – got an assist in his last away game at Old Trafford.
Firmino – none of his returns have come at home, which backs up the popular opinion that he seems to score more away from home.
Vardy – has scored two and made an assist at home against Chelsea, but not many will trust him after the recent blanks.
TAA – has assisted at home against Southampton and interestingly picked up two CS in the last two home games. A CS plus an assist would likely result in bonus points and a double figure haul.
Members Stats breakdown - FPL Gameweek 25 Captain
These stats are pulled from the Fantasy Football Hub OPTA Stats tool that is available to all members to help you analyse the players and teams. I have pulled data from the last four Gameweeks, as we’ve had a lot of games recently and I wanted a more current overview.
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