Who's the best Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 37+ captain? Our resident FPL captaincy expert Chris Tan takes a close look at the fixtures, poll and stats breakdown before concluding on his best pick for the armband.
FPL Gameweek 36+ Captain Recap
Well the target Norwich method didn’t quite go to plan due to a combination of a lack of creativity from Chelsea and poor finishing. In addition, we weren’t sure about Bournemouth prior to this Gameweek, despite their stats looks relatively positive, however now it’s a lot clearer that they’re not going to roll over.
So what have we learnt?
Who to target – I would advise avoiding the teams battling for relegation, which are Villa, Bournemouth, Watford and West Ham. They’re fighting with everything they have and that’s not what I want my captain to face. I would still target Norwich, they were lucky to only have conceded one and their defence looks a shambles. I would also consider the teams on the beach such as Newcastle, Everton and Crystal Palace.
Motivation – the plan to target the golden boot chasers hasn’t really paid off yet although Ings scored tonight. Team motivation is still crucial though, as detailed above. Looking at the opposite end of the table Chelsea, Leicester and Man Utd are still fighting hard for the top four and they can’t afford to drop points. This makes their league line ups a bit easier to predict, which is what we need at the moment.
The Messi rule – I read the Fabio Borges interview this week and I was impressed by his analytical view of the game. That led me down a rabbit hole towards Michael Caley and other Expected Goals (xG) related articles. The “Messi” rule is basically that he has outperformed his xG by around 25-30% throughout his career. When it comes to finishing, Messi is the g.o.a.t. Therefore if we ever see someone that’s outperforming their xG by 30+% we can be pretty confident that it’s not sustainable. I will be applying this when I analyse some players later on.
How have we done to date?
I couldn’t resist Alonso. I’m still happy with my decision, it was an obvious clean sheet (CS) and he was basically camped in their box so there was a high probability of an attacking return, which would have resulted in a decent haul. I was disappointed after Tuesday, but luckily it worked out okay.
This was a bad week all round for most players. With the deadline prior to the FA cup games I would strongly reconsider captaining someone that might be involved or have a very safe vice captain ready.
FPL Gameweek 37+ Captain - The Fixtures
Gameweek 37+ fixtures are the reverse of Gameweek 6, here’s what happened last time:
Southampton v Bournemouth – no goal for Ings and it was the Wilson brothers and Ake that scored for Bournemouth.
Leicester v Spurs – no goal for Vardy but both Kane (8 points) and Son (5 points) returned.
Burnley v Norwich – Wood (13 points) scored a brace here and is a viable option for those looking to target Norwich. Judging by the recent success of Antonio and Giroud, it’s worth consideration, especially when you factor in how weak they are in the air.
Man City v Watford – this was an amazing game, but I’m not expecting a repeat given where Watford are in the league and City’s main team having played in the FA cup. Kevin De Bruyne picked up 17 points for this one in the infamous “lucky” vice captain incident (as most had captained Sterling who didn’t feature). Bernardo Silva topped that with 19 points, Mahrez got 15 points, David Silva got 11 points and even Otamendi came away with 15 points.
Nobody of note returned in the other games.
Twitter / @FFH_HQ FPL Gameweek 37+ Captain Poll
Who do our Twitter followers think is the best FPL Gameweek 37+ captain?
Old Hunting Ground – do any of the likely lads have a good history vs their opposition?
Wood – it’s a tiny sample, but it looks promising.
Mahrez – only one goal and assist have come away from home, his record against Watford was great with Leicester too though.
Jesus – has a cracking record and all of his returns have come away from home.
Martial – only one of his goals were scored at home.
De Bruyne – he’s only picked up two assists away from home.
Sterling – only one of his goals was scored away.
Aubameyang – small sample, it looks good though.
Rashford – only has one assist at home, which is unusual given he usually performs better at home.
Salah – he certainly enjoys playing his former employers and both his previous goals were scored at Anfield.
Mane – his record isn’t so good.
Members Stats breakdown - FPL Gameweek 37+ Captain
These stats are pulled from the Fantasy Football Hub OPTA Stats tool that is available to all members to help you analyse the players and teams.
I have pulled data from the last four Gameweeks and displayed them as ‘totals’. We have a sufficient sample now to extrapolate from and players with less minutes or appearances could score lower, so keep an eye on the number of minutes played.
I pulled these stats straight after the Man United game and prior to the addition of bonus points. This also means that Watford and West Ham are effectively a game down in the totals.
Individual Player Stats – who stands out?
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