FPL Gameweek 37 Transfer Tips
In this edition of his regular article series, @Hibbo_FPL examines the respective merits of Diogo Jota replacements for Gameweek 37 and beyond.
This article will provide FPL tips to help managers break the template and make a late charge towards the top 10k.
Following his eyebrow-raising transfer from Wolves Diogo Jota (£7.0m) hit the ground running at Anfield in his break-out Premier League season. Despite an injury-hit campaign and limited minutes the Portuguese international notched nine times in the league disrupting the status-quo of Liverpool’s attacking triumvirate.
Jurgen Klopp confirmed on Sunday that Diogo Jota is ruled out for the remainder of the season following a foot injury sustained in Thursday’s win over Manchester United. The former Wolves man is owned by 70% of elite managers who are short on time to evaluate replacements before Tuesday’s FPL deadline.
Mason Greenwood (£7.2m) represents the most obvious Diogo Jota replacement in terms of both actual returns and underlying numbers. Incredibly, over the last six matches, the England starlet has notched five goals and provided one assist for the Red Devils.
The underlying data shows Greenwood’s performances have been no flash in the pan with the Bradford youngster ranking amongst the very best. Over the last six Greenwood ranks third amongst midfielders for shots in the box (16) and shots on target (10) according to the Hub’s OPTA Stats tool.
Furthermore, the England starlet demonstrated his creative contribution by providing several big chances (2) for his teammates. With ownership of just 28% amongst elite teams, Greenwood has been slept on to a degree and certainly has fixtures conducive to returns.
Manchester United rank eighth on the Hub’s ticker when sorted by attack and boast one of the most targetable ties of Gameweek 37. A disconsolate Fulham side visits Old Trafford that opens the doors to a limited number of spectators following the easing of Covid restrictions.
Matheus Pereira (£5.4m) has enjoyed an eye-catching Premier League debut season with ten goals and six assists for West Bromwich Albion. The former Sporting Lisbon man has assumed the mantle of Baggies talisman boasting 55% FPL goal involvement for his club this season.
In the latter half of the season, Pereira has been one of the stand-out performers and staggeringly ranks as the highest-scoring player in FPL since Gameweek 19. The mercurial Brazilian dominates dead-ball situations for the Baggies and demonstrates creative numbers amongst the division’s best.
Over the last six matches, Pereira ranks joint top amongst midfielders for big chances created (4) and for chances created (15) according to the Hub’s OPTA Stats tool. The Brazilian has notched three goals and provided an assist over the last six matches and with just 3% elite level ownership represents an ultra-differential for the run-in.
In terms of fixtures West Bromwich Albion rank seventh on the Hub’s fixture ticker for the run-in when sorted by attack. In Gameweek 37 the Baggies host a West Ham side without a clean sheet in their last six matches.
Raphinha (£5.5m) has been the fulcrum of the exhilarating brand of football that Leeds United have brought to the Premier league this season. In his debut season the Brazilian has notched six goals and provided nine assists despite limited minutes due to a recent thigh injury.
Amongst this sample of players over the last six Raphinha ranks worst for shots on target (2) and xG expected goals (0.87). The Brazilian’s strength is obviously his creativity with Raphinha ranking joint sixth amongst midfielders over the last six for key passes (13) according to the Hub’s OPTA Stats tool.
However, it is noteworthy that in the last two matches that dead-ball situations have been dominated by Harrison & Dallas. The appeal of the Brazilian would certainly be dented if he lost a majority share of set pieces going forward.
With just 1.5% elite level ownership Jack Harrison (£5.5m) isn’t as fashionable as Raphinha but has demonstrated remarkable consistency in his debut Premier League season. Surprisingly, the former MLS star ranks join top amongst English midfielders for goal involvement (16) this term.
Amongst players in this sample over the last six Harrison ranks joint second for shots on target (6) and joint first for big chances (3). Furthermore, Harrison ranks second amongst present company for key passes (14) and big chances created (3) according to the Hub’s OPTA Stats tool.
Leeds United rank top on the Hub’s fixture ticker for the run-in when sorted by attack. In Gameweek 37 Leeds face a Southampton side without a clean sheet in their last six. Furthermore, no team has conceded more shots on target (45) in the last six than final day opposition West Brom.
Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.1m) is a flair pick based on a hugely favourable last two fixtures. Amongst present company over the last six the Frenchman ranks fourth for shots on target (5) and key passes (11).
However, “ASM” is a showman capable of the sublime and no pressure could see him produce exhibition football.
In terms of fixtures Newcastle rank fifth on the Hub’s fixture ticker for the run-in when sorted by attack. The Magpies face relegated duo Sheffield United and Fulham that have combined for 22 goals conceded and just two clean sheets over their last six matches according to the Hub’s OPTA Stats tool.
In conclusion, in terms of both returns and underlying numbers Mason Greenwood is the stand-out obvious Diogo Jota replacement. A plum home tie against Fulham holds huge appeal however rotation is possible for Gameweek 38 although Greenwood remains a threat from the bench.
Matheus Pereira has been both talisman and star performer for the Baggies since the appointment of Sam Allardyce. The fact that the Brazilian is very much in the shop window negates any possible “on the beach” factor with freedom to express himself I back Pereira to break the template during the run-in.
The fixtures for Leeds are hugely appealing as shown by the Hub’s fixture ticker the and while Raphinha will be the go to for many I feel that the recent loss of set pieces is significant. Ultra-differential Jack Harrison has demonstrated both goal threat and creativity which combined with favourable fixtures could prove a template breaker over the last two.
For those that have read, thank you. Keep an eye for more articles in the near future and good luck for the coming Gameweeks. Drop me a follow on Twitter @Hibbo_FPL.