Fantasy Premier League transfer trends and tips each Gameweek from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 5.
Check out our Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 5 for all the key information, stats and tips you need going into the weekend’s action.
Gameweek 5 – Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 5:
Heung-Min Son (£9.0m) – Tottenham Hotspur
Fixture: West Ham United (H)
Son is currently the highest points scorer in the 20/21 FPL season. With six goals and one assist to his name, he has netted 45 points in just four matches and is a genuine captain contender for Gameweek 5 in his fixture vs West Ham. Spurs also have the four best fixtures for attackers on the Fixture Ticker with matches against West Ham (H), Burnley (a), Brighton (H) and West Bromich Albion (a).
His conversion rates from the first four fixtures are seemingly unsustainable (six goals from six Big Chances – xG of 2.96) according to our OPTA Stats tool although his stats over the past four Premier League seasons show that he consistently outperforms his xG with his clinical finishing. 900k+ managers sold Son ahead of Gameweek 4 vs Manchester United, only for him to recover from his hamstring “injury.”
West Ham conceded the highest number of big chances in the 2019/20 Premier League season but they’ve had an incredibly strong start to the 2020/21 season having conceded the least Big Chances (4) which is juxtaposed with the fact that Spurs have created 17 Big Chances in the league (1st) this season. It should be an exciting and high scoring London derby with Son ready to continue on his hot streak with him currently the fourth-highest predicted points scorer for Gameweek 5 and fifth-highest predicted points from Gameweek 5 to Gameweek 8 on the Hub’s Points Prediction Tool.
James Rodríguez (£7.8m) – Everton
Fixture: Liverpool (H)
Rodríguez’s arrival at Everton has been part of a big list of incoming players for Carlo Ancelotti. The Colombian international has already shown fantastic creative numbers having created 4 Big Chances and 12 Key Passes (4th) equating to a 2.14xA (3rd). He has risen from £7.5m having already earned owners 35 points this season (joint 5th with Jack Grealish (£7.1m).
He will be returning late from international duty against Liverpool so therefore I would personally wait for one more Gameweek to get him in if you don’t have him already. Carlo Ancelotti has stated he will face a late test and may feature from the bench but of course this could just be mind games ahead of the Merseyside Derby. If you own him he is one for your starting XI as he will likely start the game, however, if you do not own him already then I would prioritise transfers for Son or Kane in Gameweek 5.
Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) – Everton
Fixture: Liverpool (H)
Calvert-Lewin is currently the joint top scorer in the Premier League with six goals and has also just come off the back of scoring on his England debut too. Right now he is a striker full of confidence and is playing for a revitalised Everton with Carlo Ancelotti received big backing in the summer transfer window.
He ranks third for xG (3.39) with only Jamie Vardy (3.82) and Harry Kane (3.53) above him despite no penalties and has impressive underlying stats with 15 Shots (5th), 13 Shots in the Box (4th), 9 Shots on Target (2nd) and 6 Big Chances (joint 1st). Having started the season at £7m he has rapidly risen to £7.6m in price and You could be taking a massive risk if you don’t already have him in your team at 48.4% ownership (1st) whilst he is in the form of his career.
His underlying stats and attacking numbers seem immense value at £7.6m, especially when compared to somebody like Timo Werner (£9.3m) using the Hub’s Comparison Tool.
The Merseyside derby vs Liverpool is not the best fixture and has historically been a low scoring affair over the years. If Everton score, it seems likely that Calvert-Lewin will have a hand in it this weekend. Calvert-Lewin is a “glue” player at a fantastic price point that you will want to keep in your team over the medium to long-term.
Ben Chilwell (£5.6m) – Chelsea
Fixture: Southampton (H)
Chilwell returned 18 points in his debut match for Chelsea with a goal, assist and a clean sheet. Chelsea had a rocky defensive start to the season but the additions of Edouard Mendy (£5m), Thiago Silva (£5.5m) and Chilwell seem to be stabilising their defensive woes. Chilwell’s assist threat was also clear with him making the most successful crosses (5) in Gameweek 4.
Hakim Ziyech (£7.9m) and Christian Pulisic (£8.3m) should be breaking into the starting XI for Chelsea after the international break. A less than impressive start to the season for Chelsea was surely partly due to a few of the first-team squad not being available. We could see a much stronger Chelsea side with their full strength eleven being almost ready to consistently start together.
Southampton have played with an extremely high press which helped lead to the four goals for Son in Gameweek 2. Similarly, it would appear that this kind of style could play right into Chelsea’s hands. Chilwell could return points both from clean sheets and attacking returns with his positive underlying stats and only Andy Robertson (£7m) and Trent Alexander Arnold (£7.5m) are above Chilwell for Predicted Points from defenders between Gameweeks 5 and 8.
Latest news from the England camp is that Chilwell has been withdrawn from the England squad to face Denmark due to a pre-existing foot injury.
Jack Grealish (£7.1m) – Aston Villa
Fixture: Leicester (a)
The Aston Villa talisman was a popular pick throughout last season which is unsurprising as in the OPTA stats tool for the 19/20 season, he returned a 38% Goal Involvement for Aston Villa with his eight goals and seven assists.
Aston Villa had a fantastic transfer window and have strengthened well in many positions with new signings. Fast forward to this season and Jack Grealish has caught many Fantasy Premier League managers attention with his dazzling nut-megs on Virgil Van Dijk (£6.5m), in a game where he got two goals and three assists beating title-holders Liverpool 7-2. Grealish sits third in penalty area touches despite only having played three games (28 touches).
Grealish is acting as a box to box creative hub for what looks like a very offensive Villa team. Villa are also in great defensive form with the centre back pairing of Konsa (£4.6m) and Tyrone Mings (£5.1m) with new signing Emi Martinez (£4.7m) behind them has led to a well-organised defence. Furthermore, both Matt Targett (£4.5m) and Matty Cash (£5m) in the two full-back positions are also adding to these fantastic defensive performances so far this season. With a solid defensive foundation behind them, the team’s attackers can now thrive and push forward confidently.
Harry Kane (£10.6m) –Tottenham Hotspur
Fixture: West Ham United (H)
Kane is the second-highest scorer of the season with 44 points, is topping the league for the majority of underlying attacking stats and and appears to be back to his best. He has had 19 Shots, 15 Shots in the Box and 10 Shots on Target over these first four Gameweeks and is taking only 18.9 minutes per chance.
Even more impressively he is also creating a significant amount of chances for his teammates with an xA of 3.2. The West Ham fixture is not as simple as it first seems due to their new-found defensive solidity outlined earlier however Kane and Spurs’ underlying offensive stats very much show this fixture to be a classic case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Penalty duties are a bonus in addition to his newfound creative threat with 6 assists this season compared to only 2 the entirety of last season. He is certainly a captaincy contender for Gameweek 5 alongside his teammate Son.
Gameweek 5 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 5:
Timo Werner (£9.3m) – Chelsea
Fixture: Southampton (H)
It is taking time to adapt to Premier League life for Werner. This could be put down to the first-choice Chelsea starting eleven not being fit and ready to start together and has led to some mixed results early on. Werner went into Gameweek 1 as one of the highest owned players in the game with close to a 50% ownership.
Patience has run thin for the majority of Fantasy Premier League managers with much better value forwards emerging especially when you look at Werner isolated on the wing with barely any touches of the ball in the box. His numbers as we saw earlier in the comparison with Calvert-Lewin seem disappointing considering the semi-premium price tag.
I expect Chelsea to start gaining some momentum with both Pulisic and Ziyech back in contention to start after the international break. Downgrading Werner to Calvert-Lewin or Watkins is tempting to fund a move for Son. Alternatively, if you can get the extra cash upgrading Werner to Kane seems a decent option given the stats we have discussed so far.
I do not doubt that Werner is a class player and with Southampton’s high press he can get a goal. However, if you can get to Kane without a hit, the temptation of the upcoming four fixtures for Spurs, allied with penalty duties seems too good to pass up. I expect the German to do well in his fixture vs Southampton in Gameweek 5, but I feel that somebody like Christian Pulisic (£8.3m) offers more value if I want to jump back on a Chelsea asset once their first choice players start to feature more regularly.
Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) – Manchester City
Fixture: Arsenal (H)
Manchester City had a shaky start to the season, including a surprise 5-2 defeat at the hands of Leicester City at the Etihad. We are seeing over 324k managers transfer out De Bruyne which feels like an overreaction as City have shown over many seasons that they can hand a good beating to any opponent.
De Bruyne has been very unfortunate to not return any points in his last two games. Despite playing only three matches so far he has created the most chances (14) this season. Also, he is taking on goal attempts at a good rate with 11 Shots, five Shots in the Box and four Shots on Target.
Sources from Man City are saying he is a major doubt vs Arsenal in Gameweek 5. If you already own the Belgian then I wouldn’t be rushing to sell him unless he is confirmed out for more than one Gameweek. I would go so far as to say if he was guaranteed to start, I would be looking at him as a high priority transfer into your teams!
Last season De Bruyne returned 19 points vs Arsenal. Since then Gabriel (£5.1m) has brought about some new-found defensive solidity at Arsenal, he has won three Man of the Match awards and was also the Arsenal Player of the Month for September. However it is worth bearing in mind that three of the four teams Arsenal have faced so far in their campaign have not posed much attacking threat (Fulham (a), West Ham (H) and Sheffield United (H)). I would consider this a very favourable fixture for Man City with Arsenal in joint second for errors leading to chances (3).
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) – Arsenal
Fixture: Manchester City (a)
Aubameyang is a talisman player for Arsenal having scored 22 goals in consecutive seasons. However, Arsenal’s next four fixtures place them in 18th position on the Fixture Ticker (screenshot at end of the article) in which time they face Man City (a), Leicester (H), Man United (a) and Aston Villa (H). Aubameyang has been left isolated in his first four fixtures this season with barely any touches in the opposition box. This is symptomatic of Arsenal, currently ranked in the bottom half of Premier League teams for creating chances.
I believe the majority of managers will have already transferred out Aubameyang after his first two fixtures. Over the course of the season, I believe there will be good opportunities to own and captain Aubameyang but not with the current fixtures as with so few touches in the opposition box and bad fixtures, at £11.9m he does not seem worth owning. In order to have a balanced squad, you can only squeeze in 2-3 premium assets without sacrifices across the team. With Salah, Kane, De Bruyne, Sterling and Son all looking tempting at the moment and offering better captaincy options I would be actively selling Aubameyang.
Once their fixtures improve from Gameweek 8/9 onwards then I believe a case can be made for reviewing Arsenal as transfer targets. In the meantime, keep an eye on how they set-up with the addition of Thomas Partey (£5m) on deadline day. The exciting box-to-box midfielder should bring flexibility for Arteta’s Arsenal and could also lead to a change in formation as he was brought in specifically to help in the transition from defence to attack which should help improve Aubameyang and Arsenal’s chance creation numbers. The Gabon international’s 20/21 season OPTA stats are poor in comparison to 19/20 and with tough opposition coming up it is a transfer out for me.
Alisson Becker (£6.0m) – Liverpool
Fixture: Everton (a)
Alisson (£6m) is out injured and if you are one of the 10.8% who own him it seems worth a downgrade to free up funds for a Kane (£10.6m) or Son (£9.0m) move this Gameweek. I do not condone a goalkeeper or defender transfer, but certainly, on this occasion, it feels justified considering you are leaving a lot of money on your bench at £6m (especially if it allows further upgrades elsewhere in your starting eleven). Another thing I will add is that with Alisson out my original ideals of double Liverpool defence with both Robertson (£7m) and Trent (£7.5m) are no longer in consideration.
I will keep Trent (£7.5m) as it stands but he is currently the seventh most transferred out player this Gameweek. As we saw earlier in the article he is still expected to return the second-most points from all defenders on the Predicted Points Tool only behind Robertson (£7m). I can understand managers on Wildcards changing to Robertson (£7m) or Chilwell (£5.6m) if they can use the funds elsewhere especially with Alisson (£6m) out for the foreseeable future.
It is also no coincidence that the seventh most transferred in player this Gameweek 5 is Emi Martinez (£4.7m) the new Aston Villa number one! In conclusion, he feels the best of the under £5m goalkeepers at the moment.
Anthony Martial (£8.8m) – Manchester United
Fixture: Newcastle (a)
The grimacing Frenchman is banned until 7th November, will miss the next three Premier League games for Man United and is a priority transfer out for those who own him. Once he is back and we have seen more of Man United, he is a worthy player for the watchlist considering his incredible returns last season despite missing many matches through injury and may prove to be great value at a new price of £8.8m or even lower if he continues to drop in value from the sales.
This season he has yet to register a shot on target and Manchester United have been having mixed results including the 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Spurs. OPTA stats paint a very disappointing picture for owners in comparison to his 19/20 stats. Hopefully, once his suspension ends he can return to his 19/20 form which saw him score 17 goals and 9 assists in just 2,625 minutes.
Aleksandar Mitrović (£5.9m) – Fulham
Fixture: Sheffield United (a)
So far this season, Mitrovic has 67% Goal Involvement (4th) for Fulham which is no coincidence given his status as the talismanic player who everything runs through. He is prolific for his team with the majority of plays going through him on the pitch. In fact, he is currently ranked fifth for penalty area touches with 26 touches in the box and has taken the third most shots with 16. Mitrovic is taking only 19 minutes per chance but his shot accuracy rate of 37% leaves a lot to be desired.
Fulham as a whole though look terrible so far this season and are an early relegation candidate to go back down to the Championship. It would be hard to argue with managers who want to transfer out the Serbian international particularly with popular players in hot form such as Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) from Aston Villa or Maupay (£6.6m) from Brighton seemingly better value in comparison.
Sheffield United have not been performing anywhere near the levels from last season with some defensive injuries and having lost Dean Henderson back to Manchester United, it seems perhaps this may not the best Gameweek to sell Mitrovic who could easily score. In fact, in the Predicted Points Tool, he is currently expected to be the seventh-highest points returner between Gameweek 5 and Gameweek 8 (amongst the other Fantasy Premier League forwards). I would only be prioritising this transfer if you have no other fires to put out in your starting eleven. For instance, if there are no other pressing transfers, I prefer the look of Watkins or Maupay.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of attacking players
Here is a view of the upcoming four Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of defensive players
Here is a view of the upcoming four Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face:
Good luck for Gameweek 5!
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