This FPL Gameweek 8 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after 7 gameweeks, and we take a look at the data, before moving on to the Wildcard Draft ahead of Gameweek 8.
If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.
Gameweek 7 Review – FPL Strategy
So we now have seven weeks of data and we’re at a decent point where we can review the original data used in my Gameweek One article and see how successful it was in terms of predicting who may do well initially.
Initial Goalkeeper Data
We had 5 teams with opening fixtures against 3 of the remaining teams that conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers last season:
After 7 Gameweeks, David Raya (£4.6m) (30), Alisson (£6m) (35) & Hugo Lloris (£5.5m) (35) are three of the top scoring Keepers.
Brentford were ignored when drafting a for The Metric Team as they were a newly promoted team and we couldn’t predict how they would perform in the Premier League.
They have really impressed and after seven gameweeks, only Man City, Brighton and Wolves have a lower xGC than Brentford.
Initial Defender Data
Looking at Defenders, the team with the best opening schedule according to the Metric was…
And once again, Brentford were ignored as they were a newly promoted team. But the likes of Pontus Jansson and Ethan Pinnock (both £4.6m) have proved incredible value with 38 points apiece.
Initial Midfielder Data
In Midfield, the teams with good fixtures based on the schedule were:
In what is seeming a constant theme here, Everton were also ignored, to our detriment, with 3 of the top 10 scoring midfielders being from The Toffees after seven gameweeks.
There was just no expectation that the likes of Andros Townsend (£5.6m), Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.7m) and Demarai Gray (£5.8m) would hit the heights they have.
It was at least pleasing that Gameweek One picks Ismaila Sarr (£6.3m) and Mason Greenwood (£7.6m) did well for the team.
Initial Forward Data
Upfront, there were three teams with three fixtures against teams that conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards last season:
With Patrick Bamford (£7.8m) injured and Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.6m) only signing in Gameweeks four, the stage was set for Michail Antonio (£8m), who duly delivered with 49 points in his opening seven games (and he was suspended for one of those)!
The Current Team
Lessons have been learnt here. I didn’t trust Brentford or Everton despite favourable opening schedules and that has cost the team.
Despite sitting at 81k and having made a great start to the season, that was a red arrow from 42k and a sense of “what could have been” is in the air…
The Data – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
We’re now seven weeks into the season so the data sample is naturally getting bigger, with the Wildcard active for Gameweek 8.
As mentioned above, please read my introduction to using FPL points as a metric if you’re unfamiliar with this approach. This article will likely answer any questions you have.
So now, we look at this seasons data so far, and potential names/teams on our radar for the Wildcard…
As we can see, Wolves have given up the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers so far. Arsenal, Norwich, Burnley and Southampton make up the remaining five.
As you can see, Chelsea top the table for FPL Points scored at the Goalkeeper position so far. But in terms of fixtures against teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers, Illan Meslier (£5m) has the best upcoming schedule. Emi Martinez (£5.5m) also has a good run.
Both of these are pricy, so maybe the likes of Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) or David Raya (£4.6m) could be a better option and hope for save points/bonus?
Guaita is second only to Meslier for baseline BPS, but when you look at team stats, you can see why Meslier is racking up points.
Leeds have conceded the most Shots On Target (43), third most big chances & only conceded fewer goals than Newcastle and Norwich. Meslier has made the most saves (28) but if Leeds can tighten up he could be a good pick.
No surprises in the Points Scored table, with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City topping the scoring already.
As mentioned above, Brentford were identified by the Metric Fixture Ticker in Pre-season as playing three of the top five teams conceding FPL Points to opposition defensive units. We should’ve listened as two of their defenders are in the top five scoring defenders after seven gameweeks.
Chelsea/Man City results show their Defensive units are borderline fixture proof & warrant inclusion regardless. Brentford also have a decent long term run, whilst Leeds and Aston Villa have good short term schedules. You can see a gap already emerging in the 8 teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Defenders here:
The Midfield Table shows Liverpool clear at the top for most FPL Points scored, mainly due to Mo Salah (£12.7m) and his red hot start. Salah is averaging 10 points per game so far.
Man City, Man United, Everton and West Ham make up the top five in terms of Points Scored. The Toffees scored even more returns with Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.6m), Andros Townsend (£5.5m) (as we mentioned last week) and Demarai Gray (£5.8m). As mentioned above, they had the fixtures for it, but no one expected three of their midfield assets to do so well.
Looking at the fixtures, Brentford play three of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Mids in their next six games. Bryan Mbeumo (£5.5m) has long been on my radar and will likely come in. Of midfielders priced at £5.9m and under, he is second only to Conor Gallagher (£5.7m) in terms of xG after seven gameweeks. Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Southampton also have decent runs coming up.
Newcastle now top of the Points Scored charts here. That’s a result of Allan Saint-Maximin’s (£6.8m) solid start to the season, as he is contributing to just over 50% of Newcastles FPL Points at this position.
Michail Antonio (£8m) delivered on the promising fixtures and Jamie Vardy (£10.5m) showing there’s life in the old dog yet!
Interestingly we see Watford in third, Wolves in 4th and Everton clinging on despite both Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8m) and Richarlison (£7.4m) being out in recent weeks.
In terms of fixtures, Brentford, Chelsea, Leeds and Southampton stand out here. With West Ham about to hit a tricky patch, is it too much of a risk to go AntoniNO?
Home and Away Points Per Game tables
With the Home/Away Points Per Game (PPG) Data I note how badly Wolves have performed at home, only beating Newcastle of those four home games. Norwich have been poor both home and away, with Liverpool hardly conceding any FPL Points to any position regardless of where their games are.
Gameweek 8 Wildcard Team – FPL Strategy
The Wildcard is active! Here is the current draft:
A mixture of picks based on the data and sensible picks. Plenty of cash in the bank, and allows me to be flexible with formation/bandwagons if another player emerges.
With the news that Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) will be available for the Watford game, I will likely be getting him in.
It’s also a big call to go without Michail Antonio (£8m) and one that I may not go through with. His statistics at his price point are absolutely top drawer. Here is a short breakdown of each current pick.
Goalkeepers – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) is in for now as at £4.5m, his fixtures are reasonable in terms of the metric. I do have cash to get Meslier if I wish, but this will be for the long term, so will think long and hard about this.
Ben Foster (£4m) on the bench as a starting £4m is a no brainer.
Defenders – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
In Defence, double Chelsea is based on their status as an Elite Defence combined with nice fixtures. An argument could be made on Double City too, but just Ruben Dias (£6.1m) for now. I will also be looking at how to get Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) into my squad.
With Ethan Pinnock (£4.6m), I’m backing Brentford to continue their decent start to the season and Tino Livramento (£4.2m) is perfect on the bench at his low price point.
Midfielders – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) is a no brainer, and Douglas Luiz (£4.6m) seems like the best option at the £4.5m price point (I got him in before his price rise).
Bryan Mbeumo (£5.5m) finally comes in. I’ve had my eye on him since Gameweek 1 and he’s absolute value right now. Raphinha (£6.6m) is also vastly underpriced so he comes in too.
Wilfried Zaha (£7m) I’m unsure of but Palace have great fixtures and he is their Talisman. I may take a punt on Mason Mount (£7.4m) but I would need to be sure he starts Chelsea’s next games, something which may be unlikely given the nature of their manager.
Forwards – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
Romelu Lukaku (£11.7m) makes the cut with some tasty upcoming fixtures. Ivan Toney (£6.4m) and Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) also looking good ahead of good fixture runs too. If Patrick Bamford (£7.8m) was fit I think he’d also be a great option. Adam Armstrong (£6m) is also on my radar.
Whether I can go without Antonio however, I’m not sure. He is top of all shots metrics apart from goals (5), where he is being outscored by Vardy (6).
Both him and Alexander-Arnold could easily be in my team by the deadline.
*** UPDATE *** Team Reveal – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
I’ve decided to go with the data and put Illan Meslier (£5m) in goal. I’m hoping Leeds can turn it around and the fixtures are there for that to happen. With his underlying numbers and baseline BPS, this could lead to some hauls.
With the news that Antonio Rudiger (£5.8m) is out, I’ve opted for Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.1m) and a double up on Man City’s defence. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) couldn’t be ignored either, so he’s in as a set and forget.
I’ve opted for Conor Gallagher (£5.7m) over Wilfried Zaha (£7m) and this means I can also include Mason Mount (£7.4m).
Adam Armstrong (£6m) has made the cut over Ivan Toney (£6.4m) to spread the risk a little bit.
Meanwhile, Michail Antonio (£8m) has made the cut regardless of fixtures – he’s been too good to just sell right now. I’ve also left £0.5m in the bank for a move from Armstrong to Toney later down the line.
Transfers – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
As above, the Wildcard is in play.
Captaincy – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
This will be Mohamed Salah (£12.7m). He’s in sensational form and the Metric also backs this decision up.
Watford are in the top five for FPL Points conceded to Midfielders at home and overall. Liverpool are miles clear in terms of FPL Points scored by Midfielders.
Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 8 Strategy
Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!
I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!
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