Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips | 2020/21

Gameweek 10 Fantasy Premier League transfer trends and tips from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 10.

Gameweek 10 has some interesting fixtures swings, which brings the recurring question up of Form vs Fixtures? Son (£9.5m) was the third most transferred out player in Gameweek 9 but went onto return 10 points. Since then he is now the seventh most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 10 (88,000 transfers in so far).

Manchester City has the best fixtures for both attack and defence on our Fixture Ticker between Gameweeks 10 and 15, but will you be ditching the in-form Tottenham Hotspur assets to bring in the Man City players who have looked a shadow of their former selves this season? Interestingly Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), the most transferred in City player, is only the 15th most transferred in player so far this Gameweek. This leads me to believe that although Man City has superior fixtures, many FPL managers are still not convinced and want to see more first. 

Man City scored a whopping 27 goals from an xG of 23.63 after their first 8 games last season.

They scored a huge 26 from an xG of 20.81 in their last 8 games last season.

This season though they have scored only 10 goals from an xG of just 13.17 in their first 8 games.

Ouch!

— Andrew Gower (@goweramg) November 21, 2020

During the week we have the return of the Champion’s League and Europa League. As usual, I highly recommend waiting until at least Thursday 26th November, before making any transfers (unless your Wildcard is active).

Without further ado, onto the Gameweek 10 transfers trends (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 10-15 is now at the end of the weekly articles):

Gameweek 10 – Top transfers in

These are the three most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 10:

1. Diogo Jota (£6.6m) – Liverpool

Fixture: Brighton (a)
Ownership: 16%

Liverpool have shown that despite the numerous injuries to their defence, they will continue to score multiple goals in the majority of their matches. In the last five Gameweeks, only Southampton (12) and Chelsea (12) have scored more goals than Liverpool (10). 

Over one million managers sold Salah (£12.2m) after he tested positive for Covid and will now be looking for a way back into the Liverpool offence. Jota is definitely worthy of being in the conversation as it seems wise to own at least one attacker from the champions over the coming Gameweeks.

Underlying stats this season:

• 394 mins (7 appearances / 4 starts)
• 31 touches in the penalty box
• 18 shots (10 on target)
• 13 shots inside the box
• 5 big chances
• 5 chances created (2 big chances created)
• 4 goals (3.16 xG)
• 0 assists (1.44 xA)

When Jota joined Liverpool, many thought his role would be as a super-sub but he has very much forced his way into the starting eleven. He does not feel like as much of a rotation risk as we first feared and appears undroppable at the moment. He looks likely to play a lot more than the likes of Phil Foden (£6.5m) and has managed three goals in his last four games.

Liverpool as a team are joint-second for goals this season (21) with only Chelsea (22) having scored more than them. They have the highest xG this season (23.02) with Spurs in second behind them (18.15). They top almost all underlying attacking stats with 33 big chance (1st), 157 shots (1st), 62 shots on target (1st), shots in the box (1st) and 107 chances created (1st). 

In Gameweek 9, Jota had seven shots (four in the box) and created three chances (two big chances). He may not play 90 minutes every week in the long term but for now, with the injuries at Liverpool and his insane form, he looks like great value at just £6.6m.

Liverpool sits in fourth in the Fixture Ticker when sorted by attack over the next six Gameweeks. After their trip Brighton in Gameweek 10, they will play games against Wolves (H), Fulham (a), Spurs (H), Cyrstal Palace (a) and West Brom (H). The Predicted Points Tool has him on 4.3 points in Gameweek 9 (9th out of all Midfielders).

The Predicted Points Tool has Jota returning 4.3 points against Brighton in Gameweek 10 (11th for Midfielders).

Transfer rating: It’s no wonder Jota is the most transferred in player this Gameweek, with his relatively cheaper price in comparison to Salah (£12.2m) and Mane (£12.1m). It seems like a fantastic time to invest in Jota and, or, one of his Liverpool teammates. 

2. Bruno Fernandes (£10.8m) – Manchester United

Fixture: Southampton (a)
Ownership: 36%

Fernandes’ retaken penalty was a 24 point swing for his captainers in Gameweek 9 (from -2 up to 22 points)! Many have been pointing out the “fortune” of owners due to their hatred of VAR. Bruno created six chances in this game alone and if his teammates were more clinical, he was close to a monster points haul. In fact, his six chances created in this game is the most chances created by a single player in the entire season so far.

Underlying stats this season:

• 660 mins (8 appearances/ 8 starts)
• 22 touches in the penalty box
• 24 shots (12 on target)
• 9 shots inside the box
• 5 big chances
• 26 chances created (5 big chances created)
• 6 goals (4.66 xG)
• 3 assists (3.3 xA)

Bruno has already managed four double-digit hauls in just eight games whilst Man United seem to be building some momentum now and putting up better underlying attacking numbers. Bruno has created the most chances this season (26) with De Bruyne (£11.6m) behind him in second (23).

Southampton has conceded the most attempts from set-pieces and headed attempts. This should offer even more avenues for Bruno to get returns considering the sheer number of set-piece duties he has at United. Going against the myth that he only scores penalties, no midfielder has scored more open-play goals than Fernandes since his arrival in the Premier League.

Bruno Fernandes has scored 6 goals from open play in the PL since his debut, no midfielder has more in that period.

Bruno Fernandes has registered 7 assists from open play in the PL since his debut, no midfielder has more in that period.

Need any more? 🤔

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) November 16, 2020

Fernandes has also managed double-digit hauls in all of his away games this season. His next two fixtures vs Southampton and West Ham are both away from home where I expect him to continue earning owners great returns. The Predicted Points Tool has him on 4.8 points in Gameweek 10 (6th for Midfielders). 

Transfer rating: Fantastic transfer with a very high ceiling of points – very much the Talisman player at United. No other player has contributed to a higher % of his team’s FPL points this season. If you do own Fernandes, he’s also a captaincy option again in Gameweek 10 away to Southampton. United have three fixtures away from home in their next four: Southampton, West Ham and Sheffield United. West Ham and Sheffield have both also conceded a significant number of shots per game at their home stadiums (13.25 and 14.75 per game respectively).

3. Jamie Vardy (£10.2m) – Leicester City

Fixture: Fulham (H)
Ownership: 25%

Leicester are in fine goalscoring form with six goals in their last four fixtures and come up against Fulham, Sheffield United and Brighton next. The 2019/20 season Golden Boot winner already has managed to get himself eight goals and two assists in eight matches. Vardy and Leicester hit a blip in their match against Liverpool and were comprehensively defeated 3-0 in their Gameweek 9 matchup.

Underlying stats this season:

• 650 mins (8 appearances/ 7 starts)
• 35 touches in the penalty box
• 18 shots (13 on target)
• 16 shots inside the box
• 13 big chances
• 6 chances created (2 big chances created)
• 8 goals (7.82 xG)
• 2 assists (1.7 xA)

Vardy was pictured limping off with what looks like an ongoing hip issue, definitely worth keeping an eye on before bringing him in for these fantastic set of fixtures where I can see him also being a popular captaincy pick in both Gameweeks 10 and 12. Vardy always finds a way to score and so I am not put off by his poor non-penalty xG. He has had 13 big chances this season (1st) despite only starting seven matches.

Fulham have been terrible this season and has some of the worst defensive stats in the league. Leicester are the 4th highest scoring team this season with 18 goals. This combination plus Vardy’s penalty duties against Fulham who are leaking goals makes him a top captaincy option this week. Fulham has conceded 15 goals (17th), 54 shots on target (19th), 74 shots in the box (16th) and 23 big chances (20th).

The Predicted Points Tool has him on 5.7 points in Gameweek 10 (1st for Forwards and 4th for All Positions).

Transfer rating: He is my top transfer target for both Gameweek 10 and the upcoming run of three fixtures for Leicester. If you have a way to get him in without the headache of whether to sell Kane (£11.0m) or not then it is a no brainer. If your only way to Vardy is through Kane then this will require some more thinking as you may want to bring Kane back again once Spurs fixtures improve again from Gameweek 16 onwards starting with a match against Fulham. 

Gameweek 10 – Top transfers out

These are the three most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 10:

1. Wilfried Zaha (£7.4m) – Crystal Palace

Fixture: Newcastle (H)
Ownership: 28%

Zaha has been in great form this season, having already scored more goals this season (5) in just eight matches than he did in the entire 38 matches last season (4)! Zaha has also now scored more top-flight goals for Palace than any other player in the club’s history.

Unfortunately, his owners were left massively disappointed to see he did not make the Gameweek 9 matchday squad after having tested positive on a Covid test.

Underlying stats this season:

• 720 mins (8 appearances/ 8 starts)
• 49 touches in the penalty box
• 18 shots (7 on target)
• 16 shots inside the box
• 6 big chances
• 13 chances created (3 big chances created)
• 5 goals (3.9 xG)
• 2 assists (2.33 xA)

Hodgson said that they had hoped he would test negative before Monday’s match against Burnley which leads me to think there is a good chance of him returning in time for next weekend’s Gameweek 10 fixture vs Newcastle.

Re: Zaha

This sounds fairly positive, if Hodgson thought there was a chance he could test negative before tonight's game then there is a chance he plays next weekend 🤞#FPL#FPLCommunity pic.twitter.com/iewegxTJxP

— FPL Ups & Downs (@FPLUpsandDowns) November 23, 2020

Crystal Palace are second on the Fixture Ticker for the next two Gameweeks, with fixtures against Newcastle (H) and West Brom (a). They are also fourth on the ticker over the next four Gameweeks. The fixtures turn massively from Gameweek 14’s fixture against Liverpool onwards, placing them 17th in the Ticker.

Transfer rating: I recommend keeping a close eye for Zaha’s next Covid test and if he is passed negative, it may be wise to keep him for these last few juicy fixtures before moving on. If he doesn’t look likely to play in Gameweek 10 then I can fully understand a move to somebody cheaper from a far more attack-minded team team like Jota (£6.6m).

2. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) – Liverpool

Fixture: Brighton (a)
Ownership: 18%

Trent picked up a calf injury and was substituted out in the 62nd minute of his Gameweek 8 fixtures vs Manchester City. It looks like he will be missing at least the next two Premier League fixtures vs Brighton and Wolves.

Underlying stats this season:

• 692 mins (8 appearances/ 8 starts)
• 1 clean sheet (16 goals conceded / 11.96 xGC)
• 10 touches in the penalty box
• 13 shots (3 on target)
• 1 shot inside the box
• 0 big chances
• 13 chances created (3 big chances created)
• 0 goals (0.56 xG)
• 1 assist (1.75 xA)

I would have kept Alexander-Arnold if not for this injury. Liverpool are sitting in third place over the next six Gameweeks on the Defensive Fixture Ticker (only Man City and Aston Villa have better defensive fixtures). I appreciate that they have been on a bit of a slump defensively this season having conceded the fourth-most goals (16).

Milner (£5.3m) showed against Leicester, he is a more than competent enough cover whilst Alexander-Arnold is out. This week’s clean sheet means that Liverpool have now matched the number of clean sheets they had reached by Gameweek 15 last year.

Some managers benched him last week amidst the fire sale in the hope for some more news from Klopp but the latest news implies that we should no longer keep the most expensive defender in the game sitting on the bench.

Klopp was not in the mood to put a timescale on the right-back’s return before Liverpool’s Gameweek 9 fixture.

“Trent is not only out for a game or so, it’ll be slightly longer. So that means we need to use all the options we have there and [James Milner] is one of them.”

Transfer rating: Definite transfer out for the most expensive defender in FPL. I would look to change him for one of the many assets who are currently performing and, or, have great upcoming fixtures such as Robertson (£7.1m), Chilwell (£6.1m)/ Reece James (£5.1m), Cancelo (£5.5m)/ Dias (£5.5m), Telles (£5.5m), Cresswell (£5.1m)/ Coufal (£4.5m) or Konsa (£4.7m)/ Targett (£4.5m).

3. Romain Saiss (£5.2m) – Wolverhampton Wanderers

Fixture: Arsenal (a)
Ownership: 15%

Saiss owners were hoping he may start with the news that Ait-Nouri (£5.0m) had suffered a knock on international duty. There was also the very sad passing of Kilman’s (£4.3m) father too but both Kilman and Ait-Nouri started in Gameweek 9 whilst Saiss was completely left out of the Wolves squad. It turns out that he had tested positive for Covid after international duty with Morocco. This seems to be the last straw for managers who had held onto the Moroccan international and he is being mass transferred out. Not only lost his starting place at Wolves, but they are 18th in the Fixture Ticker for defenders in the next six Gameweeks.

Underlying stats this season:

• 518 mins (6 appearances/ 6 starts)
• 4 clean sheets (7 goals conceded / 7.61 xGC)
• 6 touches in the penalty box
• 4 shots (2 on target)
• 4 shot inside the box
• 1 big chance
• 1 chance created (1 big chance created)
• 1 goal (0.65 xG)
• 0 assist (0.53 xA)

Transfer rating: Saiss has been a bit of a fantasy hero so far this season but he seems to have lost his starting position in the Wolves team. I would remove Saiss as not only is he no longer nailed on to start every game, but Wolves upcoming fixtures are also not ideal. We also have no idea if he will even be fit by Gameweek 10 as he is currently self-isolating after a positive Covid test. There are lots of great defender options as listed in the transfer rating section for Alexander-Arnold above.

Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of attacking players

Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers

Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of defensive players

Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.

l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 10 deadline at 18:30 GMT this Friday 27th November.

If you are looking to follow more of my content or interact on all things FPL, follow me on Twitter. 

Good luck with Gameweek 10!

Check out our Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 10 for all the key information, stats and tips you need going into the weekend’s action.

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