Gameweek 20 Fantasy Premier League transfer trends and tips from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 20.

Navigating future Blank and Double Gameweeks

With the Blank and Double Gameweeks over, we can return to some normality in the medium term. However, this does not last long with the likes of Manchester City and Aston Villa both having a number of yet to be scheduled matches for their respective upcoming Double Gameweeks.

Tottenham Hotspur also are highly likely to have the best fixtures in the only remaining large Double Gameweek of the season in Gameweek 26. Currently, 53% of the 451k transfer out for the injured Jamie Vardy (£10.m) have been to bring in Harry Kane (£11.2m). Antonio (£6.3m) and Watkins (£6.1m) make up the second and third most popular replacements for Vardy.

It is likely for there to be another four Double Gameweeks but only the one large one remains in Gameweek 26. This will correspond with the Blank Gameweek in 29 due to the teams who qualify for the FA Cup Quarter Finals.

The GW29 Blanks will be confirmed in GW24.
The DGW26 fixtures will be announced in GW 24/25.

I'll aim to have 2 FTs in GW24 and I'll focus on MCI and TOT players with my FTs before then. Man City are likely to have Doubles in 24/26/27 and Spurs will have the best DGW26 fixtures.

— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) January 24, 2021

There is also some optimism that due to Fulham’s loss in the FA Cup 4th round, that both Leeds and Fulham are now prime candidates to be the only teams who will play twice in Double Gameweek 26 and also once in Gameweek 29.

The importance of Manchester City

Manchester City especially will be a team I am considering due to them being likely to have double fixtures in Gameweeks 24, 26 and 27. In the shorter term, their next three fixtures are fantastic vs West Bromwich Albion (a), Sheffield United (H) and Burnley (a).

With their current form as the best defensive team in the Premier League, plus the upcoming fixtures and abundance of Double Gameweeks it seems clear that we need three Manchester City players in our teams. I highly recommend owning at least two out of the following three defenders; Ruben Dias (£5.9m), Joao Cancelo (£5.8m) and John Stones (£5.1m).

Some managers will end up punting on triple defence but I’d rather save the third City spot for one of their midfield options especially so that I can more easily move back onto De Bruyne should he be fit and raring to go in their future Double Gameweeks.

We will be looking at De Bruyne in this week’s Transfer Trends series as he has now been ruled out for the upcoming 4-6 weeks (latest update since the tweet above mentioned a 2-3 weeks period.

Gameweek 20 Deadline – Tuesday 26th January at 16:30 GMT

I highly recommend waiting till Tuesday for your transfers, anything could happen between now and then. This Transfer Trends series focuses on rating a popular or interesting transfer combination within the top six most transferred IN and OUT players.

This week the topmost transferred out player is Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) with 694k transfers out.

He is predominantly being replaced by Sterling (£11.4m), Gundogan (£5.5m), Maddison (£7.1m), Son (£9.7m) and Fernandes (£11.3m).

A smaller fraction of FPL managers are opting for punts in the likes of Foden (£6.3m) or Rashford (£9.6m).

Without further ado, onto the Gameweek 20 transfers trends (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 20-25 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations):

Gameweek 20- Top transfers in

These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 20:

Most transferred in players list on 24.01.21 (focus on Gundogan being brought in as a De Bruyne replacement)

Ilkay Gundogan (£5.5m)- Manchester City

Fixtures: West Bromich Albion (a), Sheffield United (H), Burnley (a) and Liverpool (a)
Ownership: 6%

Gundogan’s new role since Gameweek 13 has led to him making late runs into the opposition box with plenty of opportunities to shoot. He scored a goal in both Man City’s Double Gameweek 19 fixtures leading to an 18 point haul for his owners. He has managed to score five goals in his last seven matches (1st).

Gundogan only costs £5.5m and has started all of the last seven matches. His penalty for Man City after De Bruyne got injured means that he is top of many FPL managers lists to replace the latter.

Underlying stats this season:

985 mins (13 appearances/ 11 starts)
32 touches in the penalty box
26 shots (9 on target)
19 shots inside the box
6 big chances
18 chances created (1 big chance created)
5 goals (3.76 xG)
0 assists (1.67 xA)

fpl transfer tips gw20

Manchester City’s brilliant next three fixtures begin with them travelling to West Brom who have been the worst defensive team in the Premier League this season. They have conceded 52 Big Chances (20th) which converted into 43 goals (20th).

They are also bottom of the Premier League for the majority of defensive stats. This includes Shots conceded (313), Shots conceded in the Box (20th) and Shots conceded on Target (124). Manchester City’s attacking numbers, on the other hand, show that this is going to be a very difficult game for West Brom.

Predicted Points and Opta Stats

The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 4.3 points for Gundogan in Gameweek 20. He looks a great asset to play over the next three Gameweeks. You can either bench him in the tougher fixtures from Gameweek 23 onwards or replace with an injury-free De Bruyne by the time the three Double Gameweeks for City arrive.

Gundogan Opta Stats

Transfer rating

Gundogan is nailed on to start the majority of Manchester City games especially with De Bruyne being out for the next 4-6 weeks. His friendly price-tag will be an enabler for many of us FPL managers to be able to buy the likes of Son or Kane in Gameweek 21 onwards.

My biggest concern is that on a game by game basis he may be asked to return to a deeper-lying midfield role and act less as a late runner into the box. The reasoning behind my concerns here is covered in the next section when looking at his form.

Considering that many are bringing him in for De Bruyne, it is only fair that we move onto analysing De Bruyne both over the course of the season and also his more recent form too.

Gameweek 20 – Top transfers out

These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 20:

Fantasy Premier League transfer Tips GW20

Most transferred out players list on 24.01.21 (focus on De Bruyne being sold for Gundogan)

Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) – Manchester City

Fixtures: West Bromich Albion (a), Sheffield United (H), Burnley (a) and Liverpool (a)
Ownership: 23%

De Bruyne Captainers and Triple Captainers were left disappointed when he was substituted with an injury in the 58th minute of his second Double Gameweek 19 fixture. He managed eight points which was the same as Fernandes and more than Salah the other two highly owned captains in the Double Gameweek.

Underlying stats this season:

1,408 mins (17 appearances / 16 starts)
72 touches in the penalty box
60 shots (18 on target)
28 shots inside the box
11 big chances
54 chances created (15 big chances created)
3 goals (7.64 xG)
10 assists (8.89 xA)

fantasy football transfer tips for gameweek 20

De Bruyne was substituted with an injury in the 58th minute of his second Double Gameweek 19 fixture

The initial estimates of only 2-3 weeks on the sidelines have been doubled to a more realistic 4-6 weeks out for the Belgian international.

😬 Manchester City have won just 3 of the 8 Premier League matches Kevin De Bruyne has not started since the start of last season, losing 4

😱 The Belgian will be out for 4-6 weeks, potentially ruling him out of meetings with Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal pic.twitter.com/JDKMUQbJgu

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) January 22, 2021

One of the reasons I like the idea of Gundogan as a Manchester City replacement is that Manchester City do not have as much creativity with De Bruyne injured. Sterling has not been in great form this season and investing so much budget to him means I would need to sacrifice owning one of the Spurs assets.

Additionally, I am not as convinced by the minutes or returns from Foden (£6.3m) or Bernardo Silva (£7.4m), who are also another two viable replacements if you want to stick to the Manchester City assets.

Comparison of Gameweeks 14-19

We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks vs over the full season in the two Comparison Tool screenshots below.

The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks though shows that £5.5m Gundogan has been taking more Shots in the Box than £11.9m De Bruyne. He has also managed a very similar xPoints in this stretch. Clearly, De Bruyne has much better creative numbers in terms of Big Chances Created and xA.

If Gundogan continues to play this more attacking role with the addition of penalties, he seems the best replacement for De Bruyne this week.

Gundogan vs De Bruyne Opta Stats for last six Gameweeks (14-19)

Comparison of Gameweeks 1-19

It is immediately clear that Gundogan prior to Gameweek 13 was not taking anywhere near the same number of shots as he has since Gameweek 13. Over the course of the full season, De Bruyne’s underlying attacking numbers are significantly better than Gundogan. One thing of note is that Gundogan’s Shots in the Box are still on par with De Bruyne even over the longer-term.

Gundogan vs De Bruyne Opta Stats across the full season Gameweeks 1-19

Transfer rating

I highly rate the De Bruyne to Gundogan transfer to free up funds for future transfers in Gameweek 21 and beyond. This will allow us to buy the likes of the Spurs, Aston Villa, Leicester and Manchester United assets moving forwards.

If you are not hot on Gundogan, my favourite replacements are Grealish (£7.7m), Maddison (£7.1m), Barnes (£6.8m), Son (£9.7m) or Rashford (£9.6m) as a De Bruyne replacement, as opposed to the other three City assets (Sterling £11.4m, Foden £6.3m or Bernardo Silva £7.4m).

Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of attacking players

Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.

*Please note the main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos.

Fixture Ticker for Gameweek 20 to Gameweek 25 (Best Attack)

Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of defensive players

Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.

Fixture Ticker for Gameweek 20 to Gameweek 25 (Best Defence)

l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 20 deadline at 16:30 GMT on Tuesday 26th January.

If you are looking to follow more of my content or interact on all things FPL, follow me on Twitter. You can also find my Gameweek 20 Team Reveal on AllAboutFPL here: https://allaboutfpl.com/2021/01/fpl-gw-20-chip-strategy-tips-and-team-reveal-fplnima/

Good luck with Gameweek 20!

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Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips | 2020/21

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