Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips | 2020/21

Gameweek 21 Fantasy Premier League transfer trends and tips from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 21.

Navigating future Blank and Double Gameweeks

Manchester City and Aston Villa both having a number of yet to be scheduled matches for their respective upcoming Double Gameweeks. Tottenham Hotspur will likely have the best fixtures in Double Gameweek 26.

Manchester City especially will be a team I am considering due to them being likely to have double fixtures in Gameweeks 24, 26 and 27. They are currently the best defence in the Premier League. They have great fixtures and three Double Gameweeks coming up too. It seems clear that we need three Manchester City players in our teams.

In Gameweek 20, 53% of Jamie Vardy (£10m) sales were for Harry Kane (£11.2m) who went off injured at half-time vs Liverpool. It will be back to the drawing boards for many FPL managers.

In fact, ahead of Gameweek 21, the Vardy to Kane transfer was the third most popular combination amongst forward players. Another stark reminder of the danger of early transfers which now means that the most popular forward transfer combo this week is Kane to Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m).

It is likely for there to be another four Double Gameweeks but only the one large one remains in Gameweek 26. This will correspond with the Blank Gameweek in 29 due to the teams who qualify for the FA Cup Quarter Finals.

I've made a graphic to show how many Double and Blank GWs each team is likely to get in GWs 21-29.

If you have your second Wildcard left and no Bench Boost then you'll probably want to aim to Wildcard after GW29.

GW29 Blanks confirmed in GW24
GW26 Doubles announced in GW 24/25 pic.twitter.com/Wqfpxr4nFW

— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) January 27, 2021

Gameweek 21 Deadline – Saturday 30th January at 11:00 GMT

I highly recommend waiting till Saturday for your transfers, anything could happen between now and then. This Transfer Trends series focuses on rating a popular or interesting transfer combination within the top six most transferred IN and OUT players.

This week the three topmost transferred out players are all forwards:

Kane (£11.3m) > 402k sales

Bamford (£6.7m) > 181k sales

Vardy (£10m) > 165k sales

The most popular replacements have been:

Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m)> 294k buys

Watkins (£6.2m) > 145k buys

A smaller fraction of FPL managers are opting for Antonio (£6.4m) or Lacazette (£8.3m). They’ve had 123k and 103k transfers in respectively.

Our focus will be on Bamford making way for Calvert-Lewin (which accounts for 36% of all Bamford sales this Gameweek).

Without further ado, onto the Gameweek 21 transfers trends (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 21-26 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations):

Gameweek 21- Top transfers in

These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 21:

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m)- Everton

Fixtures:  Newcastle (H), Leeds (a), Manchester United (a) and Fulham (H)
Ownership: 31%

Calvert-Lewin is already on 11 goals and four assists this year. Everton have been missing their key creative players in recent weeks and as such Calvert–Lewin’s output has massively declined. In fact, he has not scored a goal in the league in his last seven matches. His early season form saw him rise £1m in price from a starting point of £7m.

Underlying stats this season:

• 1,496 mins (17 appearances/ 17 starts)
• 80 touches in the penalty box
• 47 shots (25 on target)
• 41 shots inside the box
• 17 big chances
• 8 chances created (0 big chances created)
• 11 goals (9.63 xG)
• 4 assists (2.06 xA)

James Rodriguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6m), have both been a big loss for Everton’s creativity. The full supporting cast is now back to create chances for Calvert-Lewin to return to his goalscoring aways of the early season. I expect their recent dire creative stats to get back on track now.

Their Gameweek 21 opponent, Newcastle, has lost seven of their last nine Premier League matches whilst conceding 18 goals. In terms of Big Chances Conceded, Newcastle rank 19th on average. Their average xG conceded ranks them at 16th (1.75). It does not look like Steve Bruce plans on changing his 4-4-2 formation to tighten up the threats on goal.

Predicted Points and Opta Stats

The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 4.9 points for Calvert-Lewin in Gameweek 21 (1st across forwards). He also ranks 4th for projected points between Gameweek 21-24 with 16.8 points.

Transfer rating

Calvert-Lewin is not only nailed on to start all Everton matches but he is also the focal point of the entire team. Everton face three of the worst defences in the Premier League this season in their next four matches.

My biggest concern is that Calvert–Lewin’s underlying attacking numbers have dipped recently but that is with the caveat of the supporting cast being injured.

With the return of Digne and Rodriguez, this should certainly improve. Their next set of opponents are also some of the poorest defences out there this season. I believe Everton are about to hit some serious form and I’d like to get one of the first tickets on the train!

Considering that many are bringing him in for Bamford, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Bamford both over the course of the season and also his more recent form too.

Gameweek 21 – Top transfers out

These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 21:

Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) – Leeds United

Fixtures: Leicester (a), Everton (H), Crystal Palace (H) and Arsenal (a)
Ownership: 48%

Leeds finally got back to winning aways last week after two losses in a row. Bamford has blanked in his last three matches though. Looking at the season as a whole, Bamford has been right at the top for the majority of underlying attacking stats. He is 2nd for Shots, 1st for Shots on Target, 1st for Shots in the Box and 3rd for Big Chances.

Underlying stats this season:

• 1,609 mins (19 appearances / 19 starts)
• 97 touches in the penalty box
• 66 shots (28 on target)
• 58 shots inside the box
• 18 big chances
• 9 chances created (1 big chance created)
• 10 goals (10.69 xG)
• 5 assists (2.58 xA)

Leeds are also one of the few teams that could have a Double Gameweek in 26 and also have a fixture in the Blank Gameweek in 29. I personally would not write off Leeds just yet. Many are worried their style of play has exhausted them and that they are going to fade away now.

Bamford was subbed off early in Gameweek 20 and I expect him to be refreshed and raring to go against Leicester in Gameweek 21. I expect both teams to score a few goals in this game as they are both very attacking sides.

Although Leeds have slowed down on their underlying attacking numbers recently, they are still sitting in the top 5 for the majority of underlying attacking stats. Their 32 goals and 190 Shots in the Box are 4th in the Premier League.

Predicted Points and Opta Stats

 

The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 3.8 points for Bamford in Gameweek 21 (10th across forwards). He also ranks 8th for projected points between Gameweek 21-24 with 16 points.

Comparison of Gameweeks 15-20

We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks vs over the full season in the two Comparison Tool screenshots below.

The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks shows that Bamford is way ahead of Calvert-Lewin both in actual returns and underlying stats.

In my opinion, the move from Bamford to Calvert–Lewin is coming due to FPL managers frustration with Leeds decline in attacking numbers and Bamford’s early sub last Gameweek. Equally, managers are trying to get onto the Everton train before their potential explosive returns in this kind run of games.

Comparison of Gameweeks 1-20

Over the course of the full season, Calvert-Lewin’s underlying attacking numbers are on par with Bamford. It is immediately clear that the Everton striker has really struggled from a lack of service and this should now change.

Transfer rating

Personally, I will not be selling Bamford yet. I expect him to get returns after the early substitution against Newcastle. I can totally understand why FPL managers are selling him, especially if they do not have any fires to put out in the rest of their squad. It is a tactical move to get ahead of the crowd.

I am very excited by the return of the Everton creative assets plus the turn in fixtures and upcoming Double Gameweeks. I intend on finding another way to get to Calvert–Lewin so I can give Bamford another chance (Rodrigo can make way).

If you are not hot on Calvert-Lewin, my favourite replacements are Ollie Watkins (£6.2m) and Michael Antonio (£6.4m). Watkins has two Double Gameweeks and great fixtures coming up. Antonio is looking lethal and back to full fitness after some very impressive games for West Ham.

Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of attacking players

Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.

*Please note the main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos. Also, note that without the Double Gameweek 26 fixtures the ticker is not gospel yet.

Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of defensive players

Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.

l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 21 deadline at 11:00 GMT on Saturday 30th January.

If you are looking to follow more of my content or interact on all things FPL, follow me on Twitter.

Good luck with Gameweek 21!

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