Fantasy Premier League transfer tips and differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he uses our OPTA stats tool to pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks for consideration for your FPL transfer who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
@FPLTIPZ has also produced a Gameweek 30 One Week Punt article for any managers planning on playing the wildcard in Gameweek 31.
Gameweek 30 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Romain Saiss – £4.9m, 4.9% owned
During the 2019/20 season, Wolves kept 13 clean sheets or 0.34 clean sheets per game, the joint fourth most out of any team in the league behind Manchester City, Burnley and Liverpool. So far this season Wolves have only managed 0.28 clean sheets per game. However, the upcoming fixtures could allow for a return to the strong defensive form seen last season. Using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker, Wolves have the best defensive run of fixtures over the next five Gameweeks out of any team with a fixture in Gameweek 33 where Wolves play at home to Burnley at home. The other fixtures in this run are West Ham and Sheffield United at home with Fulham and West Brom away. Since Gameweek 20, three of these teams in Sheffield United, Fulham and West Brom sit as the bottom three for goals scored per game and all averaged less than 2 goals every three games. This all indicates there should be a good possibility for Wolves to improve on their defensive form shown in recent weeks.
Using the OPTA stats tool, Saiss has the best attacking threat out of the Wolves defence. Saiss ranks first for shots, shots on target, shots inside the box, goals and expected goals per start so far this season giving him the highest expected attacking points per start out of any Wolves defender. With the strong upcoming run of fixtures combined with the attacking threat that Saiss has shown so far this season, the Moroccan has the potential to return to the goal-scoring form and popularity seen at the beginning of this season.
The Midfielder Differential – Kai Havertz – £8.2m, 2.7% owned
The Hub’s Fixture Ticker shows that Chelsea have the easiest run of fixtures from an attacking point of view over the next five Gameweeks. These fixtures include home matches against West Brom, Brighton and Fulham with away trips to Crystal Palace and West Ham. All of these teams, except for West Ham, sit in the bottom eight for goals conceded so far this season indicating this run should allow Chelsea to continue on the strong run of form and Havertz could be a good differential given recent form and run of minutes the German has been given in the starting lineup.
Using the OPTA stats tool, Havertz ranks second for expected points per start for the Blues since Tuchel took over with 5.4 points per start driven by both assist potential with goal threat as well as he has been playing in a very advanced and central position in recent Gameweeks. Havertz has the most shots, shots on target and shots inside the box per start of any Chelsea player since Tuchel has started management. On top of this Havertz has returned 0.67 assists per start since Gameweek 20 despite only making three key passes and not creating any big chances. This shows that at just 2.7% owned over the next strong run of fixtures that Chelsea have, there is potential for Havertz to continue on this run of form that continued into the international break with a goal and an assist in three matches for Germany.
The Forward Differential – Kelechi Iheanacho – £5.7m, 3.0% owned
Since Gameweek 20 Iheanacho is the second-highest scoring forward behind Patrick Bamford due to the four assists Bamford has picked up but only Gundogan has scored more goals than the Nigerian over this run. Using the OPTA stats tool, Iheanacho has the most big chances per 90 minutes with 1.48 as well as having the highest expected goals per 90 minutes out of any player in the Premier League with substantial minutes.
On top of this goal threat, Iheanacho has formed a strong partnership with Vardy and as a result, Iheanacho sits second for key passes and third for big chances created amongst forward since Gameweek 20. This has meant that he has the most bonus points per start of any forward since Gameweek 20 with 1.50 bonus points per start. This all combines to show that at just 3.0% owned Iheanacho has the potential to be a strong differential for the upcoming fixtures but this ownership is unlikely to stay as low as possible.
Using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker, Leicester has the joint fourth best fixture run over the next five Gameweeks and this even includes a fixture against Manchester City in Gameweek 30. Excluding this fixture, Leicester ranks second for the best-attacking fixtures only behind Southampton. This run of matches after Manchester City includes West Brom and Crystal Palace at home with West Ham and Southampton away. All of these teams excluding West Ham sit in the bottom six for goals conceded per game indicating that there should be good chances for Iheanacho to continue the goal-scoring form shown in recent Gameweeks.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ