FPL Strategy | Using FPL Points as a Metric – Gameweek 1 Team

This FPL strategy article is focusing on the idea of using FPL points as a metric to draft a Fantasy Premier League squad for Gameweek 1.

Armed with the data provided from the metric as well as Hub OPTA data @RichP_FPL reviews last season’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points data and the Hub Fixture Ticker to make a squad draft ahead of the 2021/22 season.

If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.

FPL Strategy | Initial Planning

At the conclusion of my previous article, I found that a 3-5-2 or a 3-4-3 would be the best formations to start with.

Today, I will review both the Hub Fixture Ticker and my own personal tickers that are derived from the FPL points as a metric data to identify the best Gameweek 1 FPL players for the Metric Team.

For Goalkeepers and Defenders we will use the defensive data. For Midfielders and Forwards we will use the attacking data. The data I will use will span the first six gameweeks.

Goalkeepers

First off, I will show the fixtures for the first six gameweeks according to the final FPL points as a metric data compiled from last season. The aim is to see if I can identify any teams with a decent run of fixtures.

A caveat to this is that the data for the relegated teams has been omitted, so we only have data for the 17 other teams from last season. Therefore, the three promoted teams will just appear as the average “white” fixtures.

A very quick look at this indicates what a tricky start Wolves have. They play three of the five teams conceding the least FPL points to opposition goalkeepers last season.

Everton have a good start, with their fixtures against Southampton, Brighton and Burnley meaning they play three of the five teams that gave up the most FPL Points to opposition goalkeepers. The Toffees also play Norwich in this run of six games.

Brentford also play three of those five, as do Leicester City, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur. Let’s cross reference this with the Hub Fixture Ticker to see if there are any teams that do well in both tickers.

 

Brighton top the Hub Fixture Ticker. They have games against Burnley, Watford, Brentford and Crystal Palace in their first six games.

In the final eight gameweeks of last season, only Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal had a lower expected goals allowed than Brighton. Robert Sanchez (£4.5m) could be a good option to start the campaign with.

I am backing Rafael Benitez to improve Everton defensively, so I’m going to back Jordan Pickford (£5.0m) as my goalkeeper for the Metric Team.

Excluding Norwich (who were in the Championship), Everton’s other five opponents were giving up between 3.7 and 5.2 points Per Game (PPG) to opposition goalkeepers in their home/away games last season (this table is at the bottom of the article).

I will choose a £4.0m goalkeeper for the bench spot.

******* Update *******

Pickford has become Robert Sanchez. Sure, it’s a very obvious pick but sometimes it’s best not to overthink it. Everton looked really poor against Manchester United so I’ll wait and see with them. Brighton are top of the FFH fixture ticker defensively Gameweeks 1-6 and playing two of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers, plus Brighton are playing two of the three promoted teams, he seems like a safe play.

Defenders

Next we look at Defenders. Whilst we have the Defensive Ticker from Hub as above, we need the FPL points as a metric data for Defenders too.

As per the previous article, a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 is on the cards here. As such, we’ll look at three starters and two bench players at £4.5m.

Liverpool play two of the three promoted teams in their first six games. They also play two of the top five teams that gave up the most FPL points to opposition defenders last season: Burnley and Crystal Palace.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) is the first defender on the team sheet. Liverpool’s fixtures are second only to Brighton on the Hub’s Ticker, so I’m confident of points from the Englishman.

Manchester United‘s first four fixtures involve two of the five teams that gave up the most FPL Points to opposition defenders last season in Wolves and Newcastle United. Leeds and Southampton were both just outside the top five too.

Despite a potential doubt over his fitness due to a rib injury and late return to pre-Season training, Luke Shaw (£5.5m) makes the cut here.

I will of course keep an eye on his fitness as we get closer to season kick off, and if he isn’t looking likely to start, I will move to Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£5.5m). Whilst he offers less attacking threat, I think United will do well over these first six fixtures.

My decision for a final starting defender comes down to West Ham or Everton. Both play two of the top five teams that gave up the most FPL points to opposition defenders last season, as well as Leeds and Southampton.

For this I’m going to consult the Hub Prediction Tool for a bit of guidance.

The two defenders from these teams predicted to score the most points are Lucas Digne (£5.5m) and Vladimir Coufal (£5.0m). Digne shades it and, whilst he’s an extra £0.5m, he should be on more set pieces than Coufal. For now, I’ll give the edge to him.

This means I need to pick my two bench defenders. Joel Veltman (£4.5m) makes the cut based on Brighton’s good fixtures and Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) getting injured in pre-season.

Watford are also placed highly on the Hub Fixture Ticker and have favourable fixtures on the Metric Ticker. When Watford’s new manager came in last season, they kept 11 clean sheets in 13 home games. They conceded just 16 goals in 27 games.

With this in mind, there’s little risk in having a Watford defender on the bench. Adam Masina (£4.5m) is predicted to score the highest number of FPL points in Gameweeks 1-6. He takes the final slot.

********* Update *********

Lucas Digne has become Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4m). Digne wasn’t on Set Pieces, and Everton looked poor vs United as mentioned above. This move also saves £1.5m and capitalises on what is hopefully a gift from the FPL Gods. Liverpool play two of the three promoted teams in their first six games and two of the five teams giving up the most FPL points to opposition Defensive Units last year.

Predicted Points Tool

Midfielders

Let’s look at the midfielder FPL points as a metric data first.

Four green fixtures right off the bat for Manchester United bodes well for the Metric Team.

West Ham also play four of the five teams that gave up the most FPL points to opposition midfielders last season, with Liverpool playing three but also playing two of the newly promoted teams.

Everton also have three green fixtures plus they play Norwich. Let’s go to the Hub Fixture Ticker now.

No surprise to see Man United on top here, but interesting to see Liverpool drop to seventh despite appealing fixtures.

Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) to sign on the dotted line for the Metric Team in midfield. We’ll watch on with keen interest to see if Jadon Sancho (£9.5m) adapts to life in the Premier League.

Mohammed Salah (£12.0m) will be our next midfield addition and likely our captain for most of the first six gameweeks. He’s predicted to be the top scoring FPL player between Gameweeks 1-6.

There are not many, if any, midfielders that appeal to me from Everton, Brighton or Newcastle.

West Ham are sixth in the Hub Fixture Ticker and also play four of the top five teams (remaining in the league) that gave up the most FPL points to opposition midfielders last season.

Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m) scored eight goals and registered six assists last season, so I’m picking him and hoping he can make a good start to this season.

Watford’s Ismaila Sarr (£6.0m) was their top scorer last season with 13 goals and looked good as part of a three man forward line in the Championship. He should also be on penalties, so with good fixtures over the first six gameweeks, he makes the initial draft.

He also tops the Hub Predictions Tool for most points after the first six gameweeks for midfielders priced at £7.0m and under. I like the punt here.

For now, I’m going to stick Josh Brownhill (£4.5m) in as a budget FPL midfielder of choice, purely for the bench. This leaves us with £22m left for the three forward spots.

********* Update *********

Brownhill has become Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) – With Cavani missing Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) out until October, I’m using the saved cash to upgrade to Greenwood, who could do a job for United over the first gameweeks. They play four of the five teams giving up the most FPL Points to Midfielders last season in their opening six games.

Forwards

As always, we will start with the FPL points as a metric data:

Leeds, Man United and West Ham all have three green fixtures in their opening six.

Aston Villa play Newcastle and two of the three promoted teams in their opening three games, but then their fixtures turn.

Referring back to the Hub Fixture Ticker, we have Man United top, with Everton in second. Neither Brighton or Watford have any strikers that appeal to me, so next up are Newcastle, West Ham and Liverpool. Leeds are down in ninth over this timeframe.

With all of this in mind, Michail Antonio (£7.5m) is the first forward in the squad. The Europa League games do not start for West Ham until Gameweek 4. Until then, West Ham play three of the five teams (remaining in the league) that gave up the most FPL points to opposition forwards last season. Hopefully he can stay fit and get us off to a good start!

I’m also going to gamble on Edinson Cavani (£8.5m) here. As mentioned above, United’s fixtures are favourable both in terms of the metric we use and also according to the Hub Fixture ticker. With Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) having surgery and being ruled out until October, hopefully we can see a lot of “El Matador” over this first six gameweeks.

This leaves us with £6.0m of the budget left. Teemu Pukki (£6m) is within budget but those fixtures are not pretty. We’re £0.5m short of Brentford’s Ivan Toney (£6.5m) but again, the fixtures aren’t great.

So for now, I’m going to select Michael Obafemi (£4.5m) as a third bench spot option, leaving us with £1.5m in the bank to enable us to be flexible with any upcoming transfers.

*************** Update *****************

Cavani has become Danny Ings (£8m). The news that Cavani has been given additional time off means I need to ship him out. Aston Villa play two of the three promoted teams and Newcastle in their opening three games (3rd most FPL Points conceded to Forwards last season), and Ings is a lethal finisher. I will potentially look to move Ings to Patrick Bamford (£8m) in Gameweek Four.

This sets us up like this for Gameweek 1.

The plan is to play a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 predominantly, but if the options aren’t there based on the data we have, I won’t force it. We will be pretty flexible with it.

I’ve stuck this through the Hub RMT Beta to try and predict how we will do over the next six gameweeks and it’s generated the below.

An 96% rating and a predicted average score of 61.1 points per week isn’t bad at all. We are ready for deadline bar any last minute issues!

Conclusion

Well there we have it. As always, there’s lots to think about ahead of the deadline. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!

Would love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!

Previous Season Points Per Game (PPG) Data

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