Have you ever wondered what the best method is for selecting an FPL captain? Is it an FPL prediction algorithm? Is it to look at anytime goal scoring odds? Is it to pick the top player in the polls? Or is it to listen to the wise words of FPL tipsters?

This series is all about putting these captaincy selection methods to the test.

How does it work?

We’ll be taking the top three picks according to an FPL algorithm, bookies anytime goalscoring odds, the captaincy poll and those of a special guest.

Each pick will be weighted so that the top pick receives 100% of their points, 2nd 85% and 3rd 70%. Each prediction method will also have one bench pick in case any of there top three doesn’t start. A running tally will be kept to find out that all-important question – which one is the best?

GW29 FPL Captaincy Review

The Hype Train founder Rob, who you can find on Twitter @HypeTrainRob, has taken an early lead for The Tipsters. Rob’s 3rd place pick of Deeney proved the difference as the Watford frontman notched an impressive 9-point haul.

The Algorithm also started strongly with Mane picking up a tidy 8points as its 3rd place pick. The Poll just behind in 3rd, whilst The bookies have got off to a slow start as they were the only ones to back Kane over Salah. Impressively, though, every single top three pick across all prediction methods, brought home attacking points.

GW29 picks and points tally

GW28The AlgorithmThe BookiesThe PollThe Tipsters
Total17.8515.316.0518.55
Pick 1 (100%)Salah (8)Kane (5)Salah (8)Salah (8)
Pick 2 (85%)Kane (4.25)Salah (6.8)Kane (4.25)Kane (4.25)
Pick 3 (70%)Mane (5.6)Firmino (3.8)Firmino* (3.8)Deeney (6.3)
Bench playerB.DaviesVardyEriksenVardy

GW30 FPL Captains

The Algorithm

Our resident statistician Carl has kindly agreed to put his super clever prediction algorithm to the test. This excellent tool has been refined and developed by Carl over the season.

So if you’re into numbers and spreadsheets, you can read more about it here. In the meantime, we’re going to be putting this algorithm to the test. Here are the top three picks with expected points totals:

  1. Aguero: Expected points – 6.2pts
  2. Sterling: Expected points – 5.91pts
  3. Kane: Expected points – 5.89pts

Bench player: Hazard (5.5pts)

Its a close call between the top three, but somewhat surprisingly Kane comes in 3rd just behind the City double act of Aguero and Sterling. The Algorithm’s number crunching clearly believes, and for good reason, that City are set to run riot against a creaking Stoke backline this weekend.

The Bookies

Will the bookies strike back this week?

Similar to the Algorithm, the bookies place Aguero top (just). Aubameyang squeezed into 3rd place ahead of Morata as Arsenal look to bounce back from their poor run with a plum home tie against Watford. 

  1. Aguero – odds: 1.65
  2. Kane – odds: 1.65*
  3. Aubameyang* odds: 1.85

Bench player: Morata odds: 1.85

*When a player has tied odds an average of a few different betting sites is taken. this put Aguero top with Aubameyang 3rd.

The Poll

Coming in 3rd place last time out, can the FPL crowd bounce back?

[democracy id=”3″]

 

Kane leads the way – and by some margin. The Spurs marksman travels to a Bournemouth outfit that has only kept one clean sheet in the last 16 matches.

A first, and surprisingly only showing in GW30, of the red-hot Salah who squeezes into 2nd. At the time of writing, Hazard makes his first showing in 3rd place as Chelsea host a Palace side that has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last six matches.

  1. Kane
  2. Salah
  3. Hazard

Bench player: TBC

The Tipster

Each week we’re going to be inviting a special guest to give their top three picks. This week, we’re starting off with one of our founding Partner‘s FPL Connect founder Simon, who you can find on Twitter @FPLConnect.

Who are your top 3 picks and why?

Okay, let’s get this one out the way – my first pick is, of course, Harry Kane. I know, I know it’s boring, but at the end of the day, he’s always at the forefront of our considerations for the captaincy for a reason and that’s simply because the man scores goals, and plenty of them. Bournemouth like to play an expansive game, especially at home, but this kind of play could play right into the hands of Spurs and I don’t see it ending well for The Cherries. Their nickname may be sweet, but I can only see Kane leaving them with a sour taste in their mouths come the full-time whistle.

‘Second up, is Sergio Agüero. With Gabriel Jesus starting up front for their UCL tie against Basel, Aguero will be fresh as a daisy for the weekend clash with Stoke. A well-rested and fully-fit Agüero getting 90 minutes could really do some damage against Stoke and whilst they have tightened up under Lambert, City are simply a different animal in comparison to the teams they have played against so far under their new manager. The same team shipped 7 goals to City’s relentless attack in the reverse fixture and new manager or not, they’re still the same team and they won’t have forgotten it lightly. If Agüero gets 90 minutes against them, then I’m expecting him to deliver the goods.

Last but certainly not least, is Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez. Leicester haven’t actually been too good recently, but following his dramatic 97th-minute equaliser from a free-kick, Mahrez‘s confidence should be back at its peak. With one eye cast on the summer’s transfer window, leaving no doubts surrounding his motivation, Mahrez knows he has to continue his good form this season and with a struggling WBA side up next, who have lost all of their last 6 matches, I can see him in the points once again.

  1. Kane
  2. Aguero
  3. Mahrez

Bench player: Salah

Summary Table

GW30The AlgorithmThe BookiesThe PollThe Tipsters
Grand Total26.823.9526.4530.3
Pick 1 (100%)Sterling (6)Kane (1)Kane (1)Kane (1)
Pick 2 (85%)Kane (.85)Aubameyang (7.65)Salah (1.7)Mahrez (9.35)
Pick 3 (70%)Hazard (2.1)Morata (0)Mahrez (7.7)Salah (1.4)
GW30 Total8.958.6510.411.75

Some big differences in the prediction methods this week. Will be interesting to see if The Tipsters can retain their early lead.

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