In this weekly series of posts, I am going to manage an FPL team using the Hub’s RMT Tool. The idea is to help Hub members understand and use it better, as well as road test it in order to improve it over time.

 

Last week’s results (GW11)

A good week overall for the RMT Tool’s team, scoring 71 (-4) points and a green arrow up from 469K to 409K. Last week’s hit paid off with Vardy and Söyüncü doing the business.

 

Elite Manager’s Results

The elite managers averaged 67 points overall and a small but significant mean rank climb from 751K to 680K (median rank: 400K). As was the case last week, however, there was a big spread of points, from a low of 46 to a high of 95 points. Mané, Jiménez and Roberton were the biggest differentials from the template.

 

GW12 RMT Tool Analysis

 

 

Firstly, for info, at the start of the week the analysis advised a secondary transfer from Mason Greenwood to Brighton’s Aaron Connelly but a price rise for Connelly plus a drop for Salah rules that particular move out with our current squad.

To the main transfer though and the scales have tipped as far as Liverpool options go and the tool is now suggesting Mane over Salah. As you can see from just a 1% transfer strength the difference between the two is marginal at the moment. For more insight, we can look deeper into the numbers. Salah obviously started the season as the clear favourite with 96% GW1 ownership amongst our elite manager sample, and Mane just 4%. Fuelled by early wildcards a minority of managers made the switch; at GW4 Salah’s ownership had dropped to 82% with Mane up to 10%. Those numbers remained pretty consistent until GW9 when Salah was an injury concern and indeed missed out away at Manchester United. Resultingly the Egyptian was sold by a good number and saw his ownership fall to 44% amongst elite managers. Mane jumped to 20% but interestingly of the 17 managers who sold Salah that week only six made a straight switch to Mane, with a big rise in ownership for both Kevin De Bruyne and Callum Wilson indicating where the money went.

Since GW9 the trend has continued but has been far from emphatic; as of GW11 Salah’s ownership stood at 38% to Mane’s 28%. However, Mane’s latest haul plus price changes for both players has resulted in the algorithm accelerating that trend somewhat and for GW12 we’re predicting 36% ownership for Mane compared to a drop for Salah to 30%. This is enough to favour the in-form Senegalese in the RMT Rating.

Back to the RMT Tool’s team then and long-term followers of this series will know that with just one free transfer available we’re typically looking for much more than “+1%” in order to make a transfer so the move this week is to hold and wait and see what next week brings; the aim here really is to make emphatic transfers rather than marginal ones thus making every move count for more.

 

Wildcard Status

Just one (very successful!) wildcarder last week so the total WC used by Elite Managers is up to 72%. The RMT Tool team has no reason to use it’s own so it’s kept under wraps for another week. At this rate we may look to do something interesting with it around Liverpool’s blank fixture in GW18 and take advantage of one the Hub’s amazing FPL Planning Tools.

 

Team for GW12

A number of decisions to be made this week. Firstly, the captaincy. The informed Captain Article has some interesting results this week but our method so far this season has been to follow the @FFootballHub’s Twitter Captain Poll so we’ll keep it simple and stick the armband on young Jamie Vardy. Elsewhere, I’ve elected to start Lundstram over Cantwell due to injury and gametime concerns for the latter and superhuman fantasy exploits for the former. A lot will probably bench Soyuncu too but Leicester have been strong defensively so I am happy to start him against an inconsistent Arsenal. Should be an exciting weekend of football, enjoy the ride!

 

 

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