This FPL strategy article by @RichP_FPL reviews the best FPL replacements for Michail Antonio (£7.9m).

Should we Sell Antonio in FPL Gameweek 5?

Michail Antonio – The Best Replacements

Following a red card in the 0-0 draw with Southampton, around 43% of all FPL managers are in a bit of a quandary with regard to Michail Antonio. The highest scoring player in the game to date now starts a one game ban and misses the next West Ham game at home to Manchester United.

At the time of writing (prior to Monday’s Everton vs Burnley), over 740,000 managers have decided to sell him. The question for this article is: who are the best replacements?

Armed with all of Fantasy Football Hub’s incredible tools, it’s our task to find out!

OPTA Stats for Fantasy Football

Best Antonio Replacements | The FPL Market

First off, let’s see who most FPL managers are bringing in up front, presumably for Antonio himself. At the time of writing, the five most transferred in forwards ahead of Gameweek 5 are:

  1. Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) – 674k transfers in
  2. Romelu Lukaku (£11.6m) – 316k transfers in
  3. Odsonne Edouard (£6.5m) – 135k transfers in
  4. Patrick Bamford (£7.9m) – 110k transfers in
  5. Allan Saint-Maximin (£6.5m) – 108k transfers in

If you’re of the view that a one game ban is enough to move him on, and you have the cash to do so, moves for Ronaldo or Lukaku (if you don’t already own one) seem like a good idea.

Both returned 13 point hauls this weekend and will likely be some of the top scorers over the course of the season. Owning at least one seems like the way forward right now.

I also like the Bamford shout here. Leeds are about to embark on a lovely fixture run, playing Newcastle (A), West Ham (H), Watford (H), Southampton (A), Wolves (H) and Norwich (A) in their next six games. Edouard and Saint-Maximin I would personally avoid for now.

Best Antonio Replacements | The Fixtures

Next, we’ll consult the Hub Fixture Ticker to see which teams have the best attacking fixtures over the next six weeks, to see if we can identify the most suitable replacements.

Hub Fixture Ticker filtered by the best attacking fixtures for the next six weeks

 

As we can see, Leeds top the fixture ticker over the next six weeks when it’s filtered to the easiest attacking fixtures, with Wolves, Everton, Arsenal and Watford making up the top five.

The case for Bamford is strengthened seeing this, with a shoutout for Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) too. Jimenez, however, doesn’t look back to his old self just yet, so I’d class that one as more of a punt.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m) would be a serious shout here as well. We’d need to see him play against Burnley first and ensure he comes out unscathed.

Rumours of that injury being longer term than we thought pour cold water on him for now. It does potentially open the door for Richarlison (£7.5m) or newly signed Salomon Rondon (£6.0m) if you fancy a real left-field punt!

I personally wouldn’t be considering the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£9.9m) myself, and I think Watford may have hit a bit of a stumbling block, so it could be a risk to drop down to Emmanuel Dennis (£5.2m). However, with a couple of fixtures against Norwich and Newcastle next, he could be worth it.

Fixture Ticker

Best Antonio Replacements | The FPL Points Predictor

Using the same timescale, let’s see who’s projected to score the most points across all Forwards according to our points prediction tool.

All Forwards sorted by Projected Points from Gameweek 5-10

 

Yet again, we see Patrick Bamford at the top – strengthening his case to enter your team. However, most of these options are potentially way out of budget unless you have plenty in the bank or are happy to take a -4.

So let’s filter by options around Antonio’s price. I’ve set the maximum price to £8.0m.

Now the table above but filtered to a maximum price of £8m

 

This sees Jimenez creep up into second, with Danny Ings (£8.0m) predicted to score the third-most points between Gameweek 5 and Gameweek 10. Bamford is looking more and more like the ideal replacement, should you wish to make a transfer.

Predicted Points Tool

Best Antonio Replacements | The FPL Stats

We’ll have a look at the stats so far to see if these help with identifying a suitable replacement.

Stats for Forwards £8.3m and under for Gameweeks 1-4 sorted by Shots in the Box

For me, this highlights how much of a beast Antonio has been.

Top for almost every metric available. We’ve already mentioned the likes of Jimenez, Calvert-Lewin and Bamford, but eight of Adam Armstrong’s (£6.0m) shots have been in the box, with four shots on target from his 12 in total.

However, he plays Manchester City and Chelsea in his next three games, so I’d rule him out. There isn’t too much else I like here.

Conclusion – Ranking the Best Antonio Replacements

I’ll start off by saying that if you have neither Ronaldo or Lukaku and have an easy route to get to one of those, I’d recommend one of them first. Failing that, I’d rank the top three replacements below:

  1. Patrick Bamford (£7.9m) – Leeds top the fixture ticker over the next six and he is predicted to score the most points of all forwards between now and Gameweek 10. Only one goal so far, but with those fixtures I’d back him to add to his tally.
  2. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m) – Caveat – It is unclear if Calvert-Lewin is playing vs Burnley and if his injury will keep him out for a while. Calvert-Lewin (if fit) would be next here. He’s been earmarked as Everton’s talisman and everything runs through him. With decent fixtures and being on penalties, I think he’s a great replacement if you wish to sell Antonio. If he isn’t fit, a punt on Richarlison might be a good shout.
  3. Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) – Jimenez hasn’t got off of the ground yet, so this one could be a risk. However, the fixtures are there and Wolves have been playing good football. Hopefully it’s just a matter of time until Jimenez gets off the mark.
  4. Emmanuel Dennis (£5.2m) – If you want to take some more cash out of your Forward line, Dennis appears to be the most nailed of the Watford Forwards. However, Watford have stalled somewhat since the opening day, so he might be a better “First Bench Spot” option.

 

Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the deadline. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!

I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!

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