This is a brand new FPL members article that looks at an in-depth captaincy analysis. New hub contributor and FPL genius Chris Tan will be guiding you through the captaincy decision. The first half is free, but a more in-depth look at the underlying numbers and Chris's conclusion is members only.
You can join hundreds of fantasy managers and access this and all our membership content for just £1 for the first month. Simply enter coupon code: CHRIST at checkout. You’ll get access to this, PLUS:
- Ben Crellin’s Personalised Interactive Fixture planning spreadsheet
- How To Win at FPL guides
- Our members Slack Channel
- Player Comparison tool
- Rate my team tool
- Advanced fixture ticker
- FPL watchlist tool
- Key FPL stats tool
- Ben Dinnery's exclusive team news and injury roundup article
- Jossy's Blank and Double Gameweek planner
- Minimum 50 extra articles each year
- A forecasting model for FPL
- A lot more!
Right, back to the article...
Gameweek 29 Recap
Captaincy wise, this was a terrible Gameweek for the majority of managers. However, nobody was massively punished as none of the main candidates really did any serious damage.
Who did I tip?
The Main Picks:
- Pogba (-1)– he was the safest option and if he had scored the penalty it would have been at least six points plus Rashford would have got an assist, so it was a massive swing for a lot of you and really unlucky.
- Aguero (2) / Sterling (3) – I didn’t expect Aguero to play and I definitely didn’t think he would play the full game. I did mention that Bournemouth were decent at home, however and they really parked the bus at the weekend. Both players had limited chances, as City struggled to break down the defence.
- Salah (3)– Liverpool and Salah’s away form continued to disappoint with their defence looking to be the most consistent options going forwards. He did have some reasonable chances, but his touch / confidence is a little off at the moment.
Last week I indicated, “Similar to Gameweek 27, I think this is a good week to take a punt. Although there are some solid options, there aren't any standout options.” How did the punts do?
- King (1) – no joy here, Bournemouth parked the bus going for damage limitation and it nearly worked.
- Jimenez (12) – an amazing return from the bargain of the season and it could have been a brace if he’d have converted the Doherty assist.
- Doherty (1) – Wolves actually kept a clean sheet, but unfortunately he was rested or it’s likely he would have picked up a tidy return and he nearly got an assist in the limited time he was on the pitch.
- Hazard (6) – after the Saturday captain fails I was very optimistic he would haul and he did return, but in the most underwhelming way before being rested after 75 minutes with no bonus.
I’m currently in limbo land with an overall rank of 65k and a couple of places outside of the money in my mini-leagues. I had a look at my rivals and surmised that they were likely to go for Pogba this Gameweek so I opted for Hazard as a calculated differential risk. The impact was -2 vs 12 (10 points), which is my weekly target to make up the deficit by the end of the season.
What did we learn?
Similar to last season, several players are emerging that are on form, but for those following the Free Hit Gameweek 32 strategy they can’t get involved. This can result in losing ground against those that don’t pay attention to chip strategy or those using an alternative approach. Only time will tell which is the superior method.
- Kane – with two goals in his last three since his return from injury, he’s hit the ground running for a change. At the same time, Son appears to have hit a wall. Once the blanks are out of the way he could be a great differential.
- Zaha – with four goals in his last four games he’s on fire and Crystal Palace look very lively but looking at the fixture list it might be worth waiting.
- Lukaku – with back to back braces and double-figure returns he’s probably the most form player in the league, but similar to Zaha with the upcoming blanks and tough fixtures afterwards it’s a wait and see.
It’s been quite refreshing having an entire week to prepare after the chaos of the last week. With nine more Gameweeks, you’re running out of time to make up ground on your mini-league leaders / to push up the overall ranks. This is the time where it could pay dividends to do something slightly different, but is this a dangerous week to do so?
At a glance, the following fixtures stand out to me:
- Crystal Palace v Brighton– Crystal Palace are on great form at the moment and Brighton don’t seem to turn up when they play away.
- Cardiff v West Ham– Cardiff are a lot better at home than away, but they appear to have dipped back into the form they were in before the tragic Sala accident plus with Bamba potentially out for the season I don’t expect them to put up much resistance against anyone.
- Huddersfield v Bournemouth– with the exception of their win against Wolves they look pretty much down and out. Nobody is really turning them over, but I can see this being a fairly comfortable win for Bournemouth.
- Leicester v Fulham – Fulham looked a bit better under Parker, but they still have all of the defensive frailties that they’ve had all season. Brendan will have had the whole week with his new team and I’m expecting a good attacking game here.
- Man City v Watford– one of the standout games of the week, City have had a rare week off and they’re closing in on the title. I don’t think Watford are capable of doing what Bournemouth did to City and they could get hammered. City does have an important UCL game on the Tuesday though, so Pep rotation may be in action.
- Liverpool v Burnley – after starting off the year so well, Burnley have lost their last two games, which is good timing for a Liverpool team looking a bit nervous and lacking confidence.
Old Haunting Ground – do any of these picks have a good history vs their opposition?
Aguero stands out massively here, admittedly three of the goals came in a cup match but that’s some record against Watford. Zaha, Sterling and Salah also deserve a mention although several of Zaha’s previous games against Brighton were in the Championship.
All stats are from OPTA and are based on the last four home or away games dependant on where the next future is..