This is a brand new FPL members article that looks at an in-depth captaincy analysis. New hub contributor and FPL genius Chris Tan will be guiding you through the captaincy decision. The first half is free, but a more in-depth look at the underlying numbers and Chris's conclusion is members only.
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Right, back to the article...
Should your current rank affect your captaincy decision?
The template should start to break up soon with the first blank Gameweek (BGW) of the season, the upcoming double Gameweeks (DGW) and subsequent BGWs. For now, however, several teams have very similar structures and we’re left with an active player template. Even after the templates shift, we will all still have the same key players from each team. This makes it very difficult to make any significant moves and you may find that you fall into one of these categories:
- You’re crushing it and just trying to maintain rank
- You’re in overall rank (OR) limbo land and unable to break through to the lower positions e.g. top30-70k pushing for top10k or top10k pushing for top1-5k
- You’re chasing the pack but you can’t see to make any significant gains (100k+)
- You’re within reach of your Mini league (ML) leaders but you can’t seem to close the gap
Your first port of call is determining where you lie on the above scale and deciding what your priorities are. Once you have established what this is you can focus your strategy on achieving this specific goal.
There’s a lot of luck in FPL and nailing your captain option can have a massive impact on how well you do. There’s also a reasonable skill element that can be demonstrated by the fact that we have all-time greats like Matthew Jones who consistently crush it every season.
To give yourself the best chance of picking a good captain all you can do is to accumulate as much relevant information as possible, then analyse it in order to make an informed decision. Accurate information and a sound analysis will result in a better decision. This won’t guarantee a successful choice, but it will increase the probability and over the long term it should definitely outperform luck.
At a glance, the following fixtures stand out to me:
- West Ham v Fulham – this looks like it’s going to be a game full of goals
- Burnley v Spurs – this was earmarked a few weeks ago as a potentially good game for GW27, but Burnley’s form has changed significantly since then going undefeated in their last seven league games. Despite that, this is still a reasonable fixture for Spurs
- Bournemouth v Wolves – Bournemouth only know how to play one way, that is to attack and Wolves (as Doherty owners can attest) are relatively leaky, but they’re a very good counter-attacking team, so this could turn into a goal fest.
- Arsenal v Southampton – although Southampton have improved a lot with their new manager you still have to fancy Arsenal who are very strong at home. I wouldn’t expect a clean sheet though.
This is very tricky GW with most players’ favourite captain choices facing off in a potential stalemate. This is a good week to try something different to make up some ground.
It's quite a close one this week with Aubameyang and Son the clear front runners, the reason for the split is likely to be due to those that have Auba and that that don't.
The safe option would be to go with one of the above, but I'll outline some other factors to help you make your decision.
Old Haunting Ground – do any of these picks have a good history vs their opposition?
This can sometimes throw up some nice history (e.g. Aguero v Chelsea) but there aren’t many options here with relatively new players or teams to the league.
|Player||Opp||Played (in PL)||Goals (in PL)||Assists (in PL)|
|Barnes||TOT||8 (7)||2 (2)||0|
What is does highlight though is Salah’s record vs United. It's also pretty bad vs the top 6 in general.
What the numbers say
All stats are from OPTA based on the last four home and away games.