Who are the best Ben Chilwell replacements in FPL?

BigManBakar uses the numbers from the Fantasy Football Hub’s OPTA tool to highlight the best options.

How long is Chilwell out for? – Best Chilwell FPL Replacements

“He has a sharp pain in his knee. N’Golo as well, they will be examined tomorrow. It’s very sad. Chilly is in a fantastic moment. Let’s hope for the best. He was in a lot of pain and now he feels a bit better. We will have the medical examination tomorrow.”

This is what Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel had to say post match after Chilwell was forced to withdraw late in the second half during Chelsea’s game against Juventus in Tuesday’s Champions League game.

The injury looked bad at first sight, with Chilwell being unable to put weight on his feet as he made his way down the tunnel.

After full-time, Chilwell took to Instagram to offer an update on the blow, with the former Leicester man eager to remain in high spirits. Writing alongside a picture of himself limping from the field, he wrote:

 “Champions league nights. Hopefully injury is not too bad.”

Fantasy managers await the results of medical examinations to find out the extent of Chilwell’s injury, but according to an initial opinion given by medics and sports scientists, it doesn’t look great:

Best chilwell replacements FPL

What makes things tricky here is that we are now heading into the most busy time of the season, with fixtures coming thick and fast. Even if Chilwell is out for a few weeks, he could miss quite a few games. At this time of the season, we need a full squad and can ill-afford to have a weak bench. 

With this in mind, it would make sense to get rid of him given his premium price tag, provided that he is out for two weeks or more.

I look at his best three replacements:

Reece James (£6.1m) – Best Chilwell FPL Replacements

If you don’t have him, then Reece James is the obvious Chilwell replacement. He’s averaging one attacking return in his previous seven starts for club and country, having scored four times and assisted thrice. I see no reason not to own him at this point as he’s in the form of his life.

I further talk about his credentials:

Defenders

Touches in the final third per 90

(Last six Gameweeks, minimum 4 starts)

1) James – 38

2) Cancelo – 36

3) Chilwell – 33

4) Alexander Arnold – 29

Defenders

21/22

 

Expected goal involvement per 90: (xGi per 90)

1) James/Alexander Arnold 0.6

2) Chilwell 0.5

3) Cancelo 0.4

 

I think the above set of statistics should be self-explanatory. In my opinion, all of Trent Alexander Arnold (£7.8m), Joao Cancelo (£6.6m), Reece James (£6.1m) are all must-haves in FPL at the moment. Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea are the top three defences for xG conceded which further strengthens their case:

xG conceded:

21/22

1) Man City 7.9

2) Liverpool 13.2

3) Chelsea 13.4

 

I think an under-rated thing about James has been his ability to accumulate bonus points. He has the best mins to baseline BPS ratio among the Chelsea defenders this season, which is why you saw him register three bonus points at the weekend despite Chilwell and Rudiger matching him for attacking returns.

With the exception of the Leicester game, where he was lucky to have registered an assist despite having an expected goal involvement of just 0.1, his underlying numbers in every match he has played so far have been nothing short of crazy. See for yourself:

Reece James this season:

GW2: 8 pen area touches, 1.2 xGi, 2 big chance involvements

GW9: 3 pen area touches, 0.6 xGi, 1 big chance involvement

GW10: 7 pen area touches, 1.1 xGi, 1 big chance involvement

GW11: 6 pen area touches, 0.7 xGi, 1 big chance involvement

Once again, this week the fixture against Man United is a matchup in his favour. No team has conceded more chances down their left than Man Utd in the last six gameweeks, so the chances are that those fantasy managers who buy James this week could be rewarded immediately.

Best Chilwell replacements FPL Gameweek 13

Reece James Stats

Marcos Alonso (£5.6m) – Best Chilwell Replacements

“Yeah, it’s my fault. Hopefully Marcos doesn’t take this personally. I wanted Azpi on the field. Every game we have the conversation, does he play or not. He’s been so unlucky since a pain in his shoulder. We said we were bringing him on for Reece James then we had to bring him on the left and somebody said it was Marcos so I am sorry to him.”

Thomas Tuchel cleared the air on why Marcos Alonso wasn’t brought on for Ben Chilwell last night. It seems as if he didn’t give much thought to the fact that Alonso was the like for like replacement for Chilwell as Azpilicueta was all set to come on.

The Spaniard has three goals and two assists in 14 league starts under Tuchel, averaging an attacking return almost once every three games. His underlying numbers in six starts this season have been decent, but still fall short of the high standards that the other wing backs have set.

 

James v Chilwell v Alonso 

21/22

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 1.3 v 1.6 v 1

Chances created: 2.8 v 1.7 v 2

Touches in the final third: 35 v 33 v 26

xG: 0.3 v 0.5 v 0.2

Expected goal involvement (xGi): 0.6 v 0.5 v 0.3

If Chilwell is to be out for a run of games, then Alonso would become very tempting as you’d expect him to play most of the games in the festive period.

best Chilwell replacements FPL Gameweek 13

Marcos Alonso’s stats

Sergio Reguilón (£5.1m) – Best Chilwell Replacements

This is the differential route if you want to go down this way.

Reguilón has been playing as a wing back under Conte and has found himself in really promising positions since the Italian has been in charge.

Reguilón, by his own admission, has been told to get into threatening positions by his manager and could represent a good option ahead of a good run of fixtures for Spurs:

“I’m enjoying the position because I can attack more! He [Conte] wants me to be solid in defence but at the same time I have to arrive in the box, help the strikers, score goals, give assists. Now I have more of a chance to score goals and give assists so let’s work.”

Conte has had a lot of success working with the likes of Marcos Alonso, Victor Moses and Achraf Hakimi in the past. At Inter, around 45% of his league goals were contributed in one way or the other by his two wing backs. If the trend is to continue, both Emerson and Reguilon could be very appealing.

So far, Reguilón has bettered Emerson for touches in the final third (47 v 37), chances created (2 v 0), big chance involvements (2 v 0) and penalty area touches (8 v 6) in both of Conte’s games in charge.

best chilwell replacements FPL gameweek 13

Sergio Reguilón Stats

 

Thank you so much for reading!

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